Publications Overview | Technology & Telecom Reports | Technology Forecasting Guides | Futures' Features | White Papers, Articles, & Complimentary Reports  | Communications Reference Book | Archive [ordering online? -- please see our return/refund policy] Archive Our older or superseded publications that may still be of interest. To be informed of new TFI forecasting and telecom reports, white papers, and articles, updated listings of future-related articles (TFI's Future Impacts), and more, please click here. Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Review & Update Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges back to top This report reviews recent TFI forecasts for the North American local exchange network, covering switching, circuit equipment, and outside plant. The TFI forecasts provide a reasoned, realistic view of the technological and competitive changes occurring in the communications industry. The report includes TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, accounting for technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition. Featured Graph: Substitution of Fiber Optic Cable for Metallic Cable in the Residential Distribution Network January 2003, 130 pages ISBN 1-884154-19-0 *Sponsored by the TTFG US $95 Electronic Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment Ray L. Hodges back to top This report provides an update and comparison to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, and describes and quantifies the impact of new technologies such as xDSL and dense wave division multiplexing. Circuit equipment investment is growing over 10% per year, while telephone plant in service is growing less than 5% since more functionality is being booked to the circuit category. This report forecasts the transitions and quantifies the rate of obsolescence of the significant and growing embedded investment in circuit equipment. October 2001, 67 pages ISBN 1-884154-17-4 *Sponsored by the TTFG US $495 Electronic Delivery US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. back to top This study presents our most recent forecasts of the impact of new technology and competition on local exchange outside plant assets. The study provides reasoned, quantitative information about the likely pace of change. Although these forecasts have implications for many types of decisions -- ranging from R&D to market strategy to pricing --the primary focus is on the management of capital, especially as it relates to depreciation and valuation. The result is a projection of the economic obsolescence of the ILECs' metallic outside plant. May 2001, 154 pages ISBN 1-884154-16-6 *Sponsored by the TTFG US $95 Electronic Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Switching Assets Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. back to top This study estimates the impact of competition on narrowband local exchange switches, especially as it relates to obsolescence and depreciation lives. The study addresses access line competition from wireless, resellers, cable companies, and other full-service providers. It also addresses the displacement of voice usage by wireless and e-communications. November 2000, 74 pages ISBN 1-884154-15-8 *Sponsored by the TTFG US $95 Electronic Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment Ray L. Hodges and Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. back to top This report addresses issues related to the current trend of ATM/IP packet switching and its impact on the embedded digital circuit switches of incumbent LECs. The report also includes a technology description and assessment of optical switching. It provides an update and comparisons to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, Inc. in 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1997, which were remarkably accurate in identifying the technology substitutions and predicting the pace of change. May 2000, 84 pages ISBN 1-884154-14-X *Sponsored by the TTFG US $95 Electronic Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Telecommunications Access Technologies Overview and Competitive Assessment Ray L. Hodges back to top This new report from Technology Futures provides a good, concise overview of the competitive access technologies that will impact the local exchange network. Published March 1999, Bound Softcover, 113 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Electronic Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Comparison of Economic Life Techniques Stephen L. Barreca back to top "This report demonstrates, through actual case studies, that traditional mortality analysis is not an adequate predictor of the end of the life cycle when technological obsolescence, not physical life limitations, is the driving force." -- Tony Flesch, GTE Operations Published May 1999, Bound Softcover, 74 pages US $45 Electronic Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services Forecasts and Impacts Third Edition Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges back to top The authors analyze the competitive threat to the LECs from the emerging wireless alternative for voice communications. The competitive impacts are reported in terms of a variety of variables, for example, access lines lost and message and non-message revenue lost. The competitive impact on the average remaining life (ARL) of the LEC copper distribution infrastructure is also measured. The ARLs include not only the effects due to competition, but also the effect of the LEC transition to fiber. Our results indicate that alternative voice communication systems are potent threats and that the ARLs of LEC voice-related infrastructure will very likely be between 6.5 and 7.3 years. Published 1998, Bound Softcover, 41 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Electronic Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change Second Edition Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., Ray L. Hodges, and Adrian J. Poitras back to top This latest edition provides a technical update to the technology forecasts and analyses of the replacement of older telecom technologies in outside plant, switching equipment, and circuit equipment with new high-speed, high-bandwidth telecom technologies by the LECs. Included are forecasts for fiber optics, SONET, and ATM, as well as an update of depreciation lives. Published 1997, Bound Softcover, 270 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Advanced Video Services Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., Curt Rogers, and Ray L. Hodges back to top This in-depth research report forecasts the availability and adoption of advanced video services (AVS), particularly by the terrestrial cable and telephone networks. Included are likely technology adoption strategies of some newcomers to the video industry -- and assessments of the impact on their existing networks. Published 1996, Bound Soft Cover, 132 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Computer Technology Trends Adrian J. Poitras and Ray L. Hodges back to top This insightful report focuses on the effects of technical progress in computers, along with continually expanding requirements and utility. Also covered are the rapid obsolescence and replacement of both existing and new computer assets and related equipment. Published 1996, Bound Soft Cover, 63 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Depreciation Lives for Telecommunications Equipment: Review and Update Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., Ray L. Hodges, and Adrian J. Poitras back to top This 1995 report updates the calculations for depreciation lives and summarizes the results of Technology Futures, Inc. 1994 research report, Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change. Published 1995, Bound Softcover, 51 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Wireless and Cable Voice Services Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Curt Rogers back to top This timely report addresses the magnitude and timing of the impact of wireless and cable competition on the LEC's wireline voice services. The authors, Vanston and Rogers, analyze the impacts and forecast subscribers and prices for wireless and cable voice services. Published 1995, Bound Soft Cover, 75 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change 1994 Edition Lawrence K. Vanston This research report quantifies the replacement of older telecom technologies with new high-speed, high-bandwidth telecom technologies -fiber optics, SONET, ATM- by the LECs. It is focused primarily on the management of capital, including both the realistic assessment of the usefulness and longevity of existing assets, as well as the need for new investment to provide the basis for earnings, growth, competitiveness, and satisfied customers in the future. Published 1994, Bound Softcover, 200 pages *Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada NTQ (New Telecom Quarterly): New Horizons in Telecommunications The evolution of the telecom industry will mean success for some businesses and failure for many others. This provocative journal was designed to give decision-makers the knowledge necessary to recognize and exploit emerging markets and technologies. NTQ is targeted to senior-level executives, professionals, and scholars, and provides strategic information on telecom technologies and markets, business opportunities, and competitive analysis. Published by TFI from 1993 through 1998, many of the articles still prove to be interesting and informative today. ISSN: 1070-3683 NTQ was published 1993 through 1998 Back Issues: North America: $10 each Elsewhere: $17 each Article Reprints: North America: $3 each Elsewhere: $5 each Personal Communications: Perspectives, Forecasts and Impacts Ralph C. Lenz and Lawrence K. Vanston Published 1993, Bound Softcover, 99 pages Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada New Telecom Services The New Telecommunications Services for Business and Society: 1990-2010 report series was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group. The objective was to quantitatively forecast new telecommunications services and their impact on technology adoption in the public network.   New Telecommunications Services and the Public Telephone Network Lawrence K. Vanston   Telecommunications for Television/Advanced Television: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies Lawrence K. Vanston, Julia A. Marsh, and Susan M. Hinton   Video Communications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies Lawrence K. Vanston, Julia A. Marsh, and Susan M. Hinton   Local Area Network Interconnection: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies Bruce R. Kravitz and Lawrence K. Vanston   Interactive Multimedia and Telecommunications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies Julia A. Marsh and Lawrence K. Vanston   Computer-Based Imaging and Telecommunications: Forecasts of Markets and Technologies Lawrence K. Vanston, Samia El-Badry-Nance, William J. Kennedy, and Nancy E. Lux   A Facsimile of the Future: Forecasts of the Fax Markets and Technologies Lawrence K. Vanston, William J. Kennedy, and Samia El-Badry-Nance A Critical Examination of the Future Utilization and Application of Cellular Technology in Telecommunications Published 1988, Bound Softcover, 54 pages AND Wireless Telephony Market Update: A Quantitative Projection of U.S. Markets Ralph C. Lenz Published 1991, Bound Softcover, 23 pages Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Future Technology in the Local Telecommunications Network: An Expert-Opinion Survey Lawrence K. Vanston and William J. Kennedy Published 1989, Bound Softcover, 146 pages Sponsored by the TTFG US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Copyright © Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C Austin, TX 78750-1859 Toll Free: (800) TEK-FUTR - Local & Outside USA: (512) 258-8898 FAX: (512) 258-0087 - e-mail: info@tfi.com - http://www.tfi.com