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Telecommunications Access Technologies Ray L. Hodges Description Key findings Who should read in this report? Table of contents Exhibits Pricing/Ordering information

Description  [back to top]

This new report from Technology Futures provides a good, concise overview of the competitive access technologies that will impact the local exchange network.

It is inevitable that incumbent local exchange carriers will lose significant market share within their franchise boundaries. The competing technologies -- terrestrial wireless, satellite, or cable -- are simply more economical than the ILECs' circuit switched, copper-based network for multimedia services and will become more economical for voice as their market share declines. It is also now economically practical for multiple competitors to provide fiber facilities in core business districts. Additionally, continued improvements in fiber optic technology and newly available millimeter wave radio systems (i.e., wireless fiber) extend the reach of competitive providers even further to include smaller cities and businesses. The ILECs' natural response to their competition is to expand beyond their franchise boundaries as full-service competitive local exchange carriers or by acquisitions. This, in turn, results in more competition for the other ILECs.

This Comprehensive Report

• Analyzes the competitive threat to local exchange carriers from competing technologies that will provide either voice or data services.
• For ease-of-use and comparison, outlines the state of each technology, the key application areas and special strengths, weaknesses and limitations, key providers and users, market size, and forecasts of the technology adoption.
• Provides an assessment and opinion as to the direction of the industry.

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

• Cable modems will capture 58% of the high-speed data market by 2005.
• ILECs will lose significant market share, which will dramatically increase the cost of serving remaining customers.
• Both wireless and cable voice are significantly less costly than LEC access at reduced penetration rates.

Includes Analysis and Forecasts of:

• Analog, cellular, digital cellular/PCS, 2.5, and 3rd generation wireless
• Cable modems
• Cable voice
• Fiber-based CLECs
• MMDS and LMDS
• VSATs
• Two generations of LEOs (Narrowband and Broadband)

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

• Local Exchange Carriers
• Competitive LECs
• Cellular Carriers
• PCS Carriers
• Wireless Suppliers
• Interexchange Carriers
• Cable MSOs
• Telecom Equipment Manufacturers
• Internet Service Providers

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter One: The Telecommunications Landscape

The Technologies

The Competition

The Costs

Chapter Two: Traditional Wireline Telephone Network

Chapter Three: Terrestrial Wireless

Cellular, PCS, 2.5 Generation, and 3rd Generation

Personal Communication Services (PCS)

Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Services (MMDS)

Local Multipoint Distribution Service (LMDS)

Wireless Fiber

Other Wireless

Chapter Four: Cable Networks

Chapter Five: Fiber-Based Competitors

Chapter Six: Satellites

Direct Broadcast Satellites (DBS)

Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs)

Narrowband LEOs

Broadband LEOs

Appendices

A. Notes to Exhibits 5.2 and 5.3

B. List of Selected Cities and Localities Served by CAPs

C. Iridium Investment Partners

List of Acronyms

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

1.1	Copper's Competition
2.1	Adoption of Interoffice SONET Equipment
2.2	Adoption of Loop SONET Equipment
2.3	Local Exchange Network Architecture
2.4	Cost of Wireline vs. Market Share
2.5	Switching Technology Shares       -- Late ATM Scenarios
2.6	Adoption of Interoffice SONET
2.7	Adoption of Loop SONET
2.8	Digital Service Availability on Fiber       -- All Households & Business Locations
3.1	Diagrammic Cellular Cluster Frequency Pattern
3.2	Cellular Telephone Network Architecture
3.3	Next-Generation Wireless Systems
3.4	Wireless Subscribers by Technology
3.5	Top 10 Licenses Ranked by Total       Population Across Markets
3.6	Top 25 Wireless Companies in Terms of       Actual Subscribers
3.7	Wireless Market Make-Up
3.8	U.S. Cellular/PCS Subscribers -- Percentage of U.S.       Population Age 15 and Older
3.9	U.S. Cellular/PCS Subscribers
3.10	U.S. Cellular/PCS Subscribers (Table)
3.11	Basic LMDS NEtwork Architecture
3.12	Top LMDS Bidders
3.13	LMDS U.S. Business Service Market
4.1	Traditional Cable TV Network Tree and       Branch Architecture
4.2	Hybrid Fiber/Coax Cable TV system
4.3	Households Using Digital Services
4.4	Cable Modems Addressable Market Size
4.5	Gompertz Forecast for Cable Modems
4.6	Gompertz Forecast for Cable Modems (Table)
4.7	Gompertz Forecast for Cable Voice Subscribers
4.8	Gompertz Forecast for Cable Voice       Subscribers (Table)
5.1	Network Carrier SONET/SDH Peak       Transmission Rate vs. Time
5.2	Competitive Access Fiber Systems,       Other Available Data -- 1997
5.3	Competitive Access Fiber Systems -- 1997
5.4	Fiber Miles
5.5	Percentage Growth in Fiber Systems
6.1	SCPC Broadcast Network
6.2	Bi-Directional Data TDMA Networks
6.3	DAMA Network
6.4	Frequency Allocation for Non-Geostationary       Satellite Services
6.5	Iridium Systems Overview
6.6	Facts about the Iridium Constellation
6.7	Celestri LEO System Architecture
6.8	Multimedia Communications Market Growth
6.9	U.S. Residential Broadband Satellite       Subscriber Forecast

Pricing Information  [back to top]

March 2000, 98 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-13-1

US $45 Electronic Delivery

US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery

US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

Texas residents add 7.25% (Austin, Texas 8.25%) sales tax.
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