Publications Overview | Technology & Telecom Reports | Technology Forecasting Guides | Futures' Features | White Papers, Articles, & Complimentary Reports  | Communications Reference Book | Archive [ordering online? -- please see our return/refund policy] Futures' Features is TFI's free e-letter informing clients and contacts of new TFI new forecasting and telecom reports and white papers, dates of upcoming seminars and conferences, technology management insights, and special offers for our readers. Below are several recent issues of Futures' Features. To subscribe to Futures' Features, please click here. April 2009 | November 2008 | May 2008 | January 2008 | November 2007 | January 2007 | December 19, 2006 | Archive Futures' Features: Forecasting Article/Telecom Article & Reports/Track Record April 2009 April 23, 2009--Futures' Features is a forecasting resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. (See bottom of e-mail for website view and opt-out.) Thanks to all who made our 4th Annual Technology Futures Asset Valuation Seminars and Conference in January so successful! We will announce early 2010 dates soon. (1) Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption ~~Read TFI Forecasting Article~~ (2) Technology Forecasts for US Telecommuncations Network ~~Read TFI Telecom Forecasting Article~~ (3) TFI's Updated Track Record Rocks! ~~20 Track Record Successes Dating from 1986 to Present~~ (4) Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition ~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~ (5) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition ~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~ ======================= (1) Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption ~~Read TFI Forecasting Article~~ Based on a talk we have been giving for 15 years, this article provides examples, philosophy, and practical advice for addressing how, when necessary, "quick and dirty forecasts can be long-lasting and beautiful." The article, by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(TFI President), appears in the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk. For more information on TFI's work in the technology forecasting area, please see Forecasting Services or contact Larry Vanston or John Vanston at (512) 258-8898 or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. _______________________ (2) Technology Forecasts for US Telecommuncations Network ~~Read TFI Telecom Forecasting Article~~ Based on our continuing work in the telecom area, this article discusses the factors such as convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, and wireless that are driving the future of telecommunications. The article, by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(TFI President), appears in the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (512) 258-8898 or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (3) TFI's Updated Track Record Rocks! ~~20 Track Record Successes Dating from 1986 to Present~~ Our forecasts are based on a strong foundation of technique and experience. Yes, we have been in forecasting a long time with much success! _______________________ (4) Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition ~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~ Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers. This report documents TFI's latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the incumbent local exchange. Written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (TFI President), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For the featured graph, ILEC Wireline Access Lines and Broadband Connections, and further details, please visit Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (512) 258-8898 or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (5) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition ~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~ The fourth edition of our flagship publication Transforming the Local Exchange Network, this report presents the latest TFI forecasts covering switching, circuit equipment, metallic cable, and fiber cable. The report also includes TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, recommendations which take into account technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition Written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. To view the featured graph, U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, table of contents, and list of figures and for purchasing details, please visit Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ Let Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Work For You: We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports and papers, as well as complementary white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page. _______________________________________________ TFI Keynote & Event Speakers: The year is off to a good start. We've already given presentations at The National Academies' meeting on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies in Washington, D.C. and at the Motor Drive and Automation Conference in Orlando, Florida. Please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com for more information. _______________________________________________ For 30 years Technology Futures has provided its clients with quality custom research, forecasts, and trend analyses in the telecom, high-tech, and other industries. For 30 years, we have drawn on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications to combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the analyst to be Your Bridge to the Future. If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us at (512) 258-8898 or info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries. ~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~ Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com. _______________________ TFI's e-mail list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please e-mail info@tfi.com or call (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898. Copyright (c) 2009, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder. -- Technology Futures, Inc. -- -- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C -- -- Austin, TX 78750-1859 -- -- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, Fax: 512-258-0087 -- -- info@tfi.com, http://www.tfi.com -- back to top Futures' Features: Jan Seminars/Jan Conference/Reports on Telecom & Mechatronics November 2008 November 2008--Futures Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. We have the major offerings listed first, with further details below. (1) Fourth Annual Technology Futures Asset Valuation Seminars and Conference: ~~Technology Forecasting for Depreciation and Valuation Seminar, Tuesday, January 13, Austin, Texas~~ ~~Broadband Futures Seminar, Wednesday, January 14, Austin, Texas~~ ~~Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference, Thursday, January 14-15, Austin, Texas~~ Series Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(President, TFI). Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D. (Chairman, TFI), Ray Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), and invited panelists. All sessions wil be held at the Courtyard Marriott Downtown, Austin, Texas. The fee is $495 each day, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. More information is available at links and below. (2) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition ~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~ (3) Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together ~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems"~~ (4) Coming Soon to Futures' Features: ~~New TFI Report: Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition~~ ~~New Complimentary Article: Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption~~ ~~New Complimentary Article: Forecasts for the US Telecommunications Network~~ ======================= (1) Fourth Annual Technology Futures Asset Valuation Seminars and Conference: ~~Technology Forecasting for Depreciation and Valuation Seminar, Tuesday, January 13, Austin, Texas~~ This seminar provides an excellent overview of general technology forecasting methods and techniques applicable to depreciation and valuation. ~~Broadband Futures Seminar, Wednesday, January 14, Austin, Texas~~ Broadband is now generally recognized as the key to success in the communications industry. It has become top priority for carriers, suppliers, users, and potential new players. This seminar provides a comprehensive review of broadband trends and their driving forces, and provides Technology Futures' latest forecasts and insights regarding broadband and it applications including VoIP, IP video, and wireless broadband. It focuses on the convergence of voice, video, data, and the Internet that is driving the competitive futurescape of the industry. ~~Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference, Thursday, January 14-15, Austin, Texas~~ Technology change, convergence, and new disrupters are turning the traditional telecommunications industry upside down and accelerating technology obsolescence in the traditional telephone, wireless, and cable television networks. This conference focuses on how to quantify the impact of technology change on the value of communications assets. Geared to property tax, depreciation, and valuation professionals in the communications industry, conference presenters and panels discuss current forecasting, broadband and wireless communications, and valuation issues. Series Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(President, TFI). Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D. (Chairman, TFI), Ray Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), and invited panelists. All sessions wil be held at the Courtyard Marriott Downtown, Austin, Texas. The fee is $495 each day, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. Please visit Seminar/Conference Series or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) 835-3887 or info@tfi.com for more information and to register. _______________________ (2) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition ~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~ TFI announces the availability of the fourth edition of its flagship publication Transforming the Local Exchange Network. This report presents the latest TFI forecasts covering switching, circuit equipment, metallic cable, and fiber cable. The report also includes TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, accounting for technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition. Written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. To view the featured graph, U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, table of contents, and list of figures and for purchasing details, please visit Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (3) Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together ~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems"~~ Products and systems, such as automobiles, have become increasingly complex, especially as computerized control and software systems have become ubiquitous. Those who design such equipment must have skills that integrate mechanical, electronic, and computerized control and software systems. Written by Henry Elliott (TFI Consultant), John Vanston (TFI Chairman), and James Irwin, this white paper provides recommendations for academic, government, and industry leaders to ensure that U.S. industry fully understands and utilizes this technology to maintain the country's economic competitiveness A complimentary copy of the report the paper is based on, Mechatronics: A Technology Forecast, is also available to our readers. For more information on TFI's work on mechatronics and other emerging energy technologies, please contact Henry Elliott at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (4) Coming Soon to Futures' Features: ~~New TFI Report: Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition~~ Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers. This soon to be published report documents Technology Futures' latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the ILECs. ~~New Complimentary Article: Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption~~ Based on a talk we have been giving for 15 years, this article provides examples, philosophy,and practical advice for addressing how "quick and dirty forecasts can be long-lasting and beautiful." ~~New Complimentary Article: Forecasts for the US Telecommunications Network~~ Based on our continuing work in the telecom area, this article discusses the variables such as convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, and wireless that are contributing to a probable telecom future. _______________________________________________ Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI: We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page. _______________________________________________ TFI Keynote & Event Speakers: Our presenters are highly regarded and available to help your organization see the future more clearly. New subjects are "Seeing the True Future: Stop Living in the Past!" and "Strategic Insights for Dramatic Business Success." The presentation "Telecom Technology Convergence" has been very popular recently with the telecom industry. For more information about TFI presentations and presenters, please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ For 30 years, Technology Futures has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future." If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries. ~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~ Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com. _______________________ TFI's e-mail list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please e-mail info@tfi.com or call (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898. Copyright (c) 2008, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder. -- Technology Futures, Inc. -- -- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C -- -- Austin, TX 78750-1859 -- -- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, Fax: 512-258-0087 -- -- info@tfi.com, http://www.tfi.com -- back to top Futures' Features: Mechatronics Paper/Telecom Reports & Paper/More May 2008 May 2008--Futures' Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. We hope our readers will find one or more of the following items interesting. Thanks to everyone who attended our third annual February seminars/conference series for making it such a success. We will be announcing 2009 datesin the coming weeks. (1) Paper: Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together ~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems" Now Available~~ (2) Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network ~~TFI Telecom Report~~ (3) Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment ~~TFI Telecom Report~~ (4) Paper: A New Telecommunications World ~~Complimentary TFI Analyst Paper for Telecom and Other Industry Players Influenced by Major Telecom Shifts~~ (5) Book Chapter: Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications ~~Article on TFI Forecasting Included in Book and Available to our Readers ======================= (1) Paper: Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together ~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems" Now Available~~ Products and systems, such as automobiles, have become increasingly complex, especially as computerized control and software systems have become ubiquitous. Those who design such equipment must have skills that integrate mechanical, electronic, and computerized control and software systems. Written by Henry Elliott (TFI Consultant), John Vanston (TFI Chairman), and James Irwin, this white paper provides recommendations for academic, government, and industry leaders to ensure that U.S. industry fully understands and utilizes this technology to maintain the country's economic competitiveness A complimentary copy of the report the paper is based on, Mechatronics: A Technology Forecast, is also available to our readers. For more information on TFI's work on mechatronics and other emerging energy technologies, please contact Henry Elliott at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (2) Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network ~~TFI Telecom Report~~ This report documents the changes in TFI's recommended depreciation life for newly-installed fiber optic cable in the local exchange network. TFI's prior recommendation was 15 to 20 years, which reflected the combined impacts of physical mortality, technological substitution, and access line losses due to competition. TFI's new recommendation is 20 to 25 years. This applies to the fiber cable that is going into the massive network upgrades such as AT&T's Project Lightspeed and Verizon's FiOS. The new recommendation recognizes that the ILECs are making these investments with full knowledge that the market is competitive. Also, there is no obvious technological replacement for the full-spectrum fiber the ILECs are now placing. Written by Larry Vanston (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For additional information and purchasing details, please see Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (3) Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment ~~TFI Telecom Report~~ Incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) still mostly use traditional circuit switching equipment for voice services. This represents a tremendous sunk investment: $62.5 billion in digital circuit switching at year-end 2006. Newer competitors are using VoIP (voice over Internet protocol) switching, which is significantly less expensive and much more flexible, especially in offering integrated applications. This study examines the main options available to ILECs regarding the future of their circuit switches and provides recommendations for depreciation lives. Written by Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant) and Larry Vanston (TFI President), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For additional information and purchasing details, please see Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (4) Paper: A New Telecommunications World ~~Complimentary TFI Analyst Paper for Telecom and Other Industry Players Influenced by Major Telecom Shifts~~ The telephone network was built to provide narrowband voice service to essentially every home and office. That world is disappearing. The reasons are many including convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, wireless, and others. This complimentary paper by Larry Vanston (TFI President) covers these and gives forecasts of the probable telecom future. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (5) Book Chapter: Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications ~~Article on TFI Forecasting Included in Book and Available to our Readers An article by Larry Vanston (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications, which appeared in the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk, is included as a chapter in the new book, Technology Management: Concepts and Applications. For thirty years Technology Futures has been actively applying formal technology forecasting to the telecommunications industry and many other industries. Anyone whose future depends on technology markets will find technology forecasting extraordinarily useful both in gaining insight and understanding, as well as in decision making. This article reviews a number of past and current forecasts to give an idea about TFI's experience with technology forecasting and what we see for the future. For more information on TFI's work in the forecasting area, please see the TFI Website or contact us at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI: We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page. _______________________________________________ TFI Keynote & Event Speakers: Our presenters are highly regarded and available to help your organization see the future more clearly. New subjects are "Seeing the True Future: Stop Living in the Past!" and "Strategic Insights for Dramatic Business Success." The presentation "Telecom Technology Convergence" has been very popular recently with the telecom industry. For more information about TFI presentations and presenters, please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ For 30 years, Technology Futures has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future." If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries. ~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~ Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com. _______________________ TFI's e-mail list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please e-mail info@tfi.com or call (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898. Copyright (c) 2008, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder. -- Technology Futures, Inc. -- -- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C -- -- Austin, TX 78750-1859 -- -- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, Fax: 512-258-0087 -- -- info@tfi.com, http://www.tfi.com -- Futures' Features: Top Tech Trends 2008/Feb Seminars/Feb Conference/More January 10, 2008 Futures' Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. (See bottom of e-mail for opt-out option.) In this issue, for the fourth year running, we provide our popular list of forward-looking trends for the coming year that will have significant impact on companies that use technology for competitive advantage. Our third annual seminars/conference series is also coming up February 6-8 in Downtown Austin, Texas. These sessions are beneficial for staying on the cutting edge of where technology is heading in your field. An upcoming speaker engagement and a recent TFI for-sale report and complimentary report are also in the lineup. (1) Top 19 Technology Trends for 2008 ~~For the 4th year running, TFI Provides List of Top Technology Trends!~~ (2) TFI's 3rd Annual Seminars/Conference Series: ~~Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar, Wednesday, February 6, Austin, Texas~~ ~~Broadband Futures Seminar, Thursday, February 7, Austin, Texas~~ ~~Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference, Friday, February 8, Austin, Texas~~ Series Director: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI). Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D. (Chairman, TFI), David Smith (Vice President, TFI), Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), and other guest presenters/panelists. Series Location: Courtyard Marriott Downtown, Austin, Texas Price: $495 each day, $945 two days, or $1,250 all three days More Info: See links, details below, or contact us at info@tfi.com, (512) 258-8898, or (800) 835-3887. (3) "The Future of Technology, Software, and Business Process--A Horizontal Convergence?" ~~David Smith, Speaker, Innotech Conference & Expo, San Antonio, Texas, March 6, 2008~~ (4) Broadband Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers ~~TFI Telecom Report with Key Findings and Featured Graph~~ (5) Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast ~~Complimentary report co-authored by TFI on "intelligent mechanical systems" now available~~ (6) More ~~Coming soon: TFI Telecom Report: Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment~~ ~~Coming soon: Complimentary TFI Analyst Paper: A New Telecommunications World~~ ~~Foresight Magazine Subscription Discount~~ ======================= (1) Top 19 Technology Trends for 2008 ~~For the 4th year running, TFI Provides List of Top Technology Trends!~~ Commenting on the list, author David Smith (Vice President, TFI) states, “2005 and 2006 were periods spent building capacity and capabilities. 2007 and 2008 are years of transition. We saw tipping points in 2007 in several technology areas, such as broadband penetration and the death of single core processing chips.” He continues, "2008 will be a dynamic year impacted by possible actions such as the potential financial instability including the threat of recession, changes in the geopolitical environment, and further changes to the landscape of business." The list below provides more information on these trends and others that will be of great consequence to those involved with global business, technology business process, science and universities, government agencies, federal labs, corporate labs, and technology savvy consumers. An expanded description of each trend is available at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/w/ti_2008-trends.html. (These predictions differ from our normal activities where TFI traditionally looks further out into the future.) Top 19 Technology Trends for 2008 1. Green, Green, Green—during 2008, everything turns green. 2. Peer-to-peer (P2P) rebrands itself and becomes an ad-supported connection between consumers, business, and content producers. 3. The IT industry’s key players dramatically increase the migration of core offerings. 4. The fabric of the enterprise computing and data center begins to change considerably. 5. Flash memory hits the mainstream in a big way. 6. Voice no longer drives communications. 7. Significant growth driven by Wi-Fi is apparent across communications hardware providers and carriers. 8. A new paradigm arrives in the wireless markets. 9. WiMAX continues its consolidation and makes many changes during the year. 10. Internet video of all types increases. 11. Digital convergence enters a new stage of growth, finally beginning to exploit the benefits of horizontal digital convergence. 12. Advertising revenue increases as new applications emerge and as tens of millions of users use immersive worlds and play massively multiplayer online games. 13. Outsourcing transitions to smart sourcing. 14. The corporateand government business models move toward ones more dominated by Reed’s law of self-forming groups. 15. Global warming and the energy crisis continue to have major impacts. 16. Global stability continues to become even more high risk. 17. The worldwide economy will be volatile during the next few years. 18. The age of bio continues to grow in importance. 19. Social applications come into prominence built around the growth of pervasive communications and computing. (See http://www.tfi.com/pubs/w/ti_2008-trends.html for an expanded description of each trend.) For more information on TFI's work on trends, please contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. __________________________ (2) TFI's 3rd Annual Seminars/Conference Series: ~~Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar, Wednesday, February 6, Austin, Texas~~ ~~Broadband Futures Seminar, Thursday, February 7, Austin, Texas~~ ~~Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference, Friday, February 8, Austin, Texas~~ Trends in technology, broadband, and telecommunications are changing the industry at a dramatic rate. Organizations are looking for insight into where the future is going and how to best get there. These sessions provide resources that will help craft innovative, future-proof strategies that fit individual organizations: (2a) Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_tfms.html Wednesday, February 6, 2008, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m., Austin, Texas. This seminar provides an overview of the philosophy and methods behind Technology Futures' Five Views of the Future Strategic Analysis Framework for planning and forecasting. This framework allows the consideration of both tangibles and intangibles, and has resulted in accurate forecasts by TFI during the past 29 years in fields such as communications, information technology, and consumer electronics. Seminar Leader:Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. President, TFI, Presenters:: John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Chairman, TFI and David Smith, Vice President, TFI Price: $495 each day, $945 two days, or $1,250 all three days. (2b) Broadband Futures Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_bf.html February 7, 2008, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m., Austin, Texas Broadband is now generally recognized as the key to success in the communications industry. It has become top priority for carriers, suppliers, users, and potential new players. This seminar provides a comprehensive review of broadband trends and their driving forces, and provides TFI's latest forecasts and insights regarding broadband and its applications including VoIP, IP video, and wireless broadband. Seminar Leader:Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. President, TFI, Presenters:: David Smith, Vice President, TFI and Kermit Ross, Founder/Principal, Millennium Marketing Price: $495 each day, $945 two days, or $1,250 all three days. (2c) Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_ibt.html February 8, 2008, 8:30 a.m.-3:45 p.m., Austin, Texas The necessity to provide very-high-speed broadband will cause the obsolescence and ultimate replacement of much of the existing communications equipment in the traditional telephone, wireless, and cable television networks. This conference will focus on how to quantify the impact of technology change on the value of communications assets. It will also address important current issues in three featured sessions with guest panelists. Conference Director: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) Presenter: Ray L. Hodges, Senior Consultant, TFI Guest Panelists: Pam Willmoth, Corporate Tax Department, AT&T Mobility; Carl Hoemke, Managing Director, Duff & Phelps; Jeffery Binkley, Managing Director, Thomson Property Tax Services; Mark Semerad, Manager, Property Tax, Level 3 Communications; Christopher Zamora, Director, Thomson Property Tax Services; Mark Schichtel, Time Warner Cable; and other guest panelists to be announced Price: $495 each day, $945 two days, or $1,250 all three days. Location: Courtyard Marriott Downtown, 300 E. 4th Street., Austin, TX 78701, (512) 236-8008 or (800) 321-2211.The hotel is within walking distance of Austin's famous 6th Street and near the Texas State Capitol, the University of Texas, and other popular Austin sites. The hotel is presently sold out of group rate rooms, and full-rate rooms are very limited. Other hotels in the area are filling up rapidly—particularly those with lower priced rooms. (One economical alternative, Extended Stay America, is several blocks away and presently has some rooms available (512) 457-9994.) Contact us if you need other hotel recommendations. We suggest you book your hotel rooms immediately! For more information, please see links above or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________ (3) "The Future of Technology, Software, and Business Process--A Horizontal Convergence?" ~~David Smith, Speaker, Innotech Conference & Expo, San Antonio, Texas, March 6, 2008~~ InnoTech creates an environment where education, innovation, peer-to-peer networking and the latest technology and business solutions are all available specifically for IT professionals. David Smith (TFI Vice President) will kick off the conference with a presentation on "The Future of Technology, Software, and Business Process--A Horizontal Convergence?" at the Norris Conference Center at 9:00 a.m. on March 6. David presented this talk to a standing-room only crowd at the October 2007 Austin Innotech Conference. He has been invited back with a promise of a larger room! For more information on booking David's presentations, please see Speakers Page. _______________________ (4) Broadband Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers ~~TFI Telecom Report with Key Findings and Featured Graph~~ TFI forecasts continued increases in broadband speeds, hastening the obsolescence of broadband investment. This report, by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), provides recommendations for depreciation lives for broadband equipment such as video set-top boxes, headend equipment, and broadband loop electronics, including DSLAMs, DSL modems, and BPON equipment. Featured Graph and Key Findings: The required data rate for broadband is increasing rapidly, causing rapid obsolescence of broadband equipment. By 2010, about 75% of U.S. households will have broadband service, and over 15% of households will subscribe to very high-speed broadband (at least 24 Mb/s). See Featured Graph: Broadband Households by Nominal Date Rate. New video services such as IP video, Internet television, and HDTV are rapidly being adopted and improved. This will cause significant obsolescence of broadband equipment. The broadband, voice, and video networks are moving toward the IP paradigm, meaning less expensive equipment, rapid obsolescence, and marked volatility in applications, services, and network requirements. In each of the broadband architectures currently being deployed, significant amounts of active electronics are exposed to the elements (either on the side of a house or at a remote node) or to household activity. This will reduce depreciation lives. The research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For more information and purchasing details, please see Broadband Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. __________________________ (5) Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast ~~Complimentary report co-authored by TFI on "intelligent mechanical systems" now available~~ Mechatronics is another way of saying "intelligent mechanical systems," and it is the foundation of many 21st century enabling technologies. This publication, co-authored by TFI staff, includes an overview of mechatronics technology, analysis of related occupations and salaries, and lists of industry experts and mechatronics companies. The report was sponsored by Texas State Technical College. For more information on TFI's work in this area, please see Services to Universities and Colleges or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. __________________________ (6) More (6a)~~Coming soon: TFI Telecom Report: Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment~~ TFI's new publication, Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment, will be available for purchase soon. Written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges, the report is sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For pre-ordering information, please contact Debra Robison at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. (6b)~~Coming soon: Complimentary TFI Analyst Paper: A New Telecommunications World~~ TFI's new analyst paper, A New Telecommunications World, by Lawrence Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), will be available at no charge to our readers soon. The telephone network was built to provide narrowband voice service to essentially every home and office. That world is disappearing. The reasons are many including convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, wireless, and others. This complimentary paper covers these and gives forecasts of the probable telecom future. (6c)~~Foresight Magazine Subscription Discount~~ Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, an official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters, seeks to advance the practice of forecasting by publishing high-quality, peer-reviewed articles, written in a concise, accessible style for forecasting analysts, managers, and students. To save $20 off the regular subscription fee of $95, please visit http://forecasters.org/pdfs/Foresight-subscription-special.pdf. _______________________________________________ Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI: We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports and papers, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page. _______________________________________________ TFI Keynote & Event Speakers: We've had a very busy year for speaking engagements on technology convergence, telecom trends, and other subjects. For more information about TFI presentations and presentors, please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ For 29 years, Technology Futures has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasti"ng, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future." If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries. ~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~ Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com. _______________________ TFI's e-mail list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please e-mail info@tfi.com or call (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898.. Copyright (c) 2008, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder. -- Technology Futures, Inc. -- -- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C -- -- Austin, TX 78750-1859 -- -- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, Fax: 512-258-0087 -- -- info@tfi.com, http://www.tfi.com -- back to top Futures' Features: Feb Seminars/Feb Conference/Reports on Telecom & Mechatronics & HTI November 2007 Futures' Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. (See bottom of e-mail for opt-out option.) It's been awhile since we've put out a Futures' Features, but not because we haven't been busy! We hope you like our new look and find this issue interesting and useful. We have the major offerings listed first, with further details below. (1) Our popular one-day seminars and third annual tax conference are back: Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar: Wednesday, February 6, 2008, Austin, Texas. Register now! Broadband Futures Seminar: Thursday, February 7, 2008, Austin, Texas. Register now! Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference: Friday, February 8, 2008, Austin, Texas. Register now! Seminars/Conference Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI). Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D. (Chairman, TFI), David Smith (Vice President, TFI), Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), and invited panelists to be announced. The fee is $495 each day, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. All the sessions will be held at the Courtyard Marriott Downtown, Austin, Texas. Please note hotel block is limited, so make reservations soon! More information available at links and below. (2) New TFI telecom report now available, with Featured Graph and Sampling of Key Findings: Broadband Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers: Featured Graph, Key Findings, and purchasing details at links or below. (3) Complimentary report co-authored by TFI on "intelligent mechanical systems" now available: Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast (4) Complimentary report co-authored by TFI on an expanding technology now available: Home Technology Integration, A Technology Forecast _______________________________________________ (1) Our popular one-day seminars and third annual tax conference are back: Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar: Wednesday, February 6, 2008, 8:30 a.m.–5:00 p.m., Austin, Texas. Overview: This seminar provides a general introduction to the philosophy and methods behind TFI's forecasts in fields such as communications, information technology, and consumer electronics. Representative quantitative and qualitative tools are covered, with an emphasis on practical understanding and practical examples, rather than on theory. Strategic and planning implications of forecasting models will also be stressed. Practical exercises are included to enhance learning. What you will gain: A toolbox of practical, proven forecasting techniques. The ability to project how rapidly new technologies will be adopted in the marketplace. The means to identify and evaluate emerging market needs. The ability to determine the rate of obsolescence for existing technologies. Interaction with other professionals involved in technology/market forecasting. Seminar Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D. (Chairman, TFI) David Smith (Vice President, TFI) Price: $495, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. Register now! Location/Accommodations: Courtyard Marriott Downtown, 300 E. 4th Street., Austin, TX, (512) 236-8008 or (800) 321-2211, The hotel is within walking distance to Austin's famous 6th Street and near the Texas State Capitol, the University of Texas, and other popular Austin sites. We have a limited $169/night block of rooms until January 16, 2008. See Hotel Information for more details. More information: Please see links above or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ Broadband Futures Seminar: Thursday, February 7, 2008, 8:30 a.m.–5:00 p.m., Austin, Texas. Overview: Broadband is now generally recognized as the key to success in the communications industry. It is the focus of the convergence of voice, video, data, and the Internet that is driving the competitive futurescape of the industry. The evolving role of wireless broadband is another key thread in the story. This seminar provides a comprehensive review of these trends and their driving forces, and provides TFI's latest forecasts and insights regarding broadband and its applications including VoIP, IP video, and wireless broadband. Seminar Topics: Broadband Adoption Forecasts. Forecasts for Increased Bandwidth. IP Video Forecasts: IPTV, Internet Television, HD IP Video. Farewell POTS: VoIP, Instant Messaging, and Integrated Applications. Wireless Broadband: Competitor or Complement? Multiple Aspects of Digital Convergence. Comparison of Fiber-Based Access Alternatives. Seminar Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) Also featuring: David Smith (Vice President, TFI) Price: $495, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. Register now! Location/Accommodations: Courtyard Marriott Downtown, 300 E. 4th Street., Austin, TX, (512) 236-8008 or (800) 321-2211, The hotel is within walking distance to Austin's famous 6th Street and near the Texas State Capitol, the University of Texas, and other popular Austin sites. We have a limited $169/night block of rooms until January 16, 2008. See Hotel Information for more details. More information: Please see links above or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference: Friday, February 8, 2008, 8:30 a.m.–3:45 p.m., Austin, Texas. Overview: The necessity to provide very-high-speed broadband will cause the obsolescence and ultimate replacement of much of the existing communications equipment in the traditional telephone, wireless, and cable television networks. This conference will focus on how to quantify the impact of technology change on the value of communications assets. It will also address important current issues in three featured sessions. Preliminary Schedule: Basic Session: Overview of TFI Forecasts and Life Estimates for Network Technology: Cable, Circuit and Switching; Wireless and Wireline; Broadband and Narrowband. New TFI Research: Obsolescence in the Local Transport Network. New TFI Research: New TFI Recommendations for ILEC Fiber Optics Lives. Methods Session: Issues in Using Technology Forecasting for Depreciation/Valuation. Featured Session: Obsolescence in Long-Distance and Local Transport Networks. Featured Session: Impacts of Technology Change on Wireless and Wireless Broadband Assets. Featured Session: Impacts of Convergence on Asset Valuation. Closing Remarks Seminar Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) Also featuring: Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI) Invited Panelists Price: $495, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. Register now! Location/Accommodations: Courtyard Marriott Downtown, 300 E. 4th Street., Austin, TX, (512) 236-8008 or (800) 321-2211, The hotel is within walking distance to Austin's famous 6th Street and near the Texas State Capitol, the University of Texas, and other popular Austin sites. We have a limited $169/night block of rooms until January 16, 2008. See Hotel Information for more details. More information: Please see links above or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. ______________________________________________ (2) New TFI telecom report now available, with Featured Graph and Key Findings: Broadband Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers: TFI forecasts continued increases in broadband speeds, hastening the obsolescence of broadband investment. This report, by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), provides recommendations for depreciation lives for broadband equipment such as video set-top boxes, headend equipment, and broadband loop electronics, including DSLAMs, DSL modems, and BPON equipment. Featured Graph and Key Findings: The required data rate for broadband is increasing rapidly, causing rapid obsolescence of broadband equipment. By 2010, about 75% of U.S. households will have broadband service, and over 15% of households will subscribe to very high-speed broadband (at least 24 Mb/s). See Featured Graph: Broadband Households by Nominal Date Rate. New video services such as IP video, Internet television, and HDTV are rapidly being adopted and improved. This will cause significant obsolescence of broadband equipment. The broadband, voice, and video networks are moving toward the IP paradigm, meaning less expensive equipment, rapid obsolescence, and marked volatility in applications, services, and network requirements. In each of the broadband architectures currently being deployed, significant amounts of active electronics are exposed to the elements (either on the side of a house or at a remote node) or to household activity. This will reduce depreciation lives. The research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For more information and purchasing details, please see Broadband Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers. For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Carry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ (3) Complimentary report co-authored by TFI on "intelligent mechanical systems" now available: Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast: Mechatronics is another way of saying "intelligent mechanical systems" and it is the foundation of many 21st century enabling technologies. This publication, co-authored by TFI staff, includes an overview of mechatronic technology and analysis of related occupations and salaries, and lists of industry experts and mechatronics companies. The report was sponsored by the Texas State Technical College. For more information on TFI's work in this area, please see Services to Universities and Colleges or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ (4) Complimentary report co-authored by TFI on an expanding technology now available: Home Technology Integration, A Technology Forecast: The market for integrating digital technology into residences is expanding beyond large, custom-built homes and into the broader mass housing market. This publication, co-authored by TFI's staff, includes an overview of HTI technology, the nature of HTI jobs and skills, and market drivers and constraints impacting the HTI industry. The report was sponsored by the Texas State Technical College. For more information on TFI's work in this area, please see Services to Universities and Colleges or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI: We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports and papers, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page. _______________________________________________ TFI Keynote & Event Speakers: We've had a very busy year for speaking engagements on technology convergence, telecom trends, and other subjects. For more information about TFI presentations and presentors, please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ For 29 years, Technology Futures has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future." If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries. ~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~ Please visit our website. _______________________ TFI's email list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please "Opt-Out" below. Copyright (c) 2007, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder. -- Technology Futures, Inc. -- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898 -- -- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C -- Fax: 512-258-0087 -- -- Austin, TX 78750-1859 -- email: info@tfi.com -- -- <http://www.tfi.com> -- back to top Futures' Features: Top 7 Tech Trends/TFI Seminars Feb. 5-7 January 2007 Futures' Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. To unsubscribe, please reply with "unsubscribe." In this issue (1) "Top Technology Trends for 2007" ~~TFI Provides List of Top Technology Trends!~~ (2) TFI Seminar Series: ~~Mon., Feb. 5: Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_tfms.html~~ ~~Tues., Feb. 6: Broadband Futures Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_bf.html~~ ~~Wed., Feb. 7: Impacts of Broadband on Asset Valuation Symposium, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_ibt.html~~ Seminars Director: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) (Also Featuring Other Speakers and Invited Panelists) Seminars Location: Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, Austin, Texas Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all three days. Complete details on the seminar series are provided below for your convenience. (3) "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," ~~Key Findings of New Telecom Report Available to Readers~~ (1) "Top Technology Trends for 2007" ~~TFI Provides List of Top Technology Trends!~~ For the third year running, TFI provides a list of forward-looking trends for the coming year that will have significant impact on companies that use technology for competitive advantage. Commenting on the list, the author, David Smith (Vice President, TFI) states, "2005 and 2006 were periods spent building capacity and capabilities. We characterize 2007 as one of transition. We see tipping points in several technology areas, consequently positioning many companies in a multitude of markets. Two examples of these tipping points are broadband penetration and the death of single core processing chips." The list below provides more information on these trends and others that will be of great consequence to those involved with global business, technology business process, science and universities, government agencies, federal labs, corporate labs, and technology savvy consumers. For further analyses on each of the trends, please see http://www.tfi.com/pubs/w/ti_2007-trends.html. TOP TECHNOLOGY TRENDS FOR 2007: Broadband and high-speed wireless penetration rapidly increases, as does the growth of new applications that can exploit these higher speeds. The IT world sees several tipping points with the death of single core processors and the emergence of multicore as the standard. This change will have rippling effects throughout the industry. Digital Convergence enters a new stage of growth and finally begins to exploit the benefits of horizontal digital convergence. The corporate scorecard is in transition. Global mergers and acquisitions continue to grow--the consolidation fueled by Sarbanes-Oxley Act compliance. The first market acceptance of smart phones for mobile commerce and epayments in North America is seen. This furthers the importance of smart phones and smart devices to the expanding impact of the Internet. The threat to security and privacy continues to be real, with a focus on authentication issues and the shifting digital rights management for devices outside traditional computing tools. The age of Bio continues to grow in importance as new products from the industry consolidations of 2006 begin coming to market in 2007/2008. For further analyses on each of the trends, please see http://www.tfi.com/pubs/w/ti_2007-trends.html. For more information on TFI's trend and forecasting work, please contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. (2) TFI Seminar Series: Mon., Feb. 5: Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_tfms.html~~ Seminar Overview: This seminar provides a general introduction to the philosophy and methods behind TFI's forecasts in fields such as communications, information technology, and consumer electronics. Representative quantitative and qualitative tools are covered, with an emphasis on practical understanding and practical examples, rather than on theory. Strategic and planning implications of forecasting models will also be stressed. Practical exercises are included to enhance learning. Participants are requested to bring a laptop computer for the quantitative exercises. What you will gain: A toolbox of practical, proven forecasting techniques. The ability to project how rapidly new technologies will be adopted in the marketplace. The ability to identify and evaluate emerging market needs. The ability to determine the rate of obsolescence for existing technologies. Interaction with other professionals involved in technology/market forecasting. You should attend this seminar if you are involved in: Identifying new business opportunities. Projecting advances in technology. Developing market strategies. Developing R&D and/or business plans. Analyzing competitive threats. Managing technology projects and programs. Depreciation and valuation Seminar Topics: Five Views of the Future™ Quantitative Methods--Substitution and Trend Analysis Practical Tips for Forecasting Applications of Quantitative Methods Expert Opinion Methods Nominal Group and Impact Wheels Exercises Seminar Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D.(Chairman, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonj.html David Smith (Vice President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/smithd.html Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all 3 days. Seminar Time and Location/Accommodations: 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m., The Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, http://hamptoninn.hilton.com/en/hp/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=AUSDTHX. The TFI room rate is $139.00 per night, plus tax. For further information and to register for this seminar, please click the links above, or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or hmvmarek@tfi.com. Tues., Feb. 6: Broadband Futures Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_bf.html Seminar Overview: This seminar is a review of forecasts and insights regarding broadband and its applications. Broadband is now generally recognized as the key to success in the communications industry. It is the focus of the convergence of voice, video, data, and the Internet that is driving the competitive futurescape of the industry. The evolving role of wireless broadband is another key thread in the story. This seminar provides a comprehensive review of these trends and their driving forces, and provides TFI's latest forecasts and insights regarding broadband and its applications including VoIP, IP video, and wireless broadband. This seminar would be of interest to the following organizations: Telcos Cable Companies Wireless Broadband Providers Equipment Manufacturers Content Providers Municipal Broadband Providers Utility Broadband Providers Internet Service Providers You should attend this seminar if you are involved in: Strategic Planning Network Planning Technology Planning Finance Market Development Regulatory/Tax/Legal Depreciation and Assessment Seminar Topics: Broadband Adoption Forecasts Forecasts for Increased Bandwidth IP Video Forecasts: IPTV, Internet Television, HD IP Video Farewell POTS: VoIP, Instant Messaging, and Integrated Applications Wireless Broadband: Competitor or Complement? Multiple Aspects of Digital Convergence Comparison of Fiber-Based Access Alternatives Seminar Director: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html Also featuring: David Smith (Vice President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/smithd.html Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all 3 days. Seminar Time and Location/Accommodations: 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m., The Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, http://hamptoninn.hilton.com/en/hp/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=AUSDTHX. The TFI room rate is $139.00 per night, plus tax. For further information and to register for this seminar, please click the links above, or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. Wed., Feb. 7: Impacts of Broadband on Asset Valuation Symposium, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_ibt.html (We recommend that participants to this symposium also attend the other two seminars.) Symposium Overview: The necessity to provide very high-speed-broadband will cause the obsolescence and ultimate replacement of much of the existing communications equipment in the traditional telephone, wireless, and cable television networks. This symposium will focus on how to quantify the impact of technology change on the value of communications assets. It will also address important current issues in two feature sessions. You should attend this symposium if you are a professional or manager involved in: Financial Reporting Price Regulation Property Taxes Legal Asset Valuation Symposium Topics: Basics of Forecasting Technology Substitutions Using Technology Forecasting to Value Equipment Impacts of Competition on Equipment Value Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Technology Substitutions in Cable, Circuit Equipment, and Switching (2006 Update) Depreciation Lives for Broadband Assets including Set-Top Boxes Impacts of Technology Substitution on Wireless Networks FEATURED SESSION: Point-by-Point Comparison of the BCRI and Industry Views of Replacement Cost and Depreciation FEATURED SESSION: Who's on First? Valuation Issues with Triple-Play and Quad-Play Convergence Symposium Director: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html Also featuring: Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/hodges.html Invited panelists to be announced Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all 3 days. Seminar Time and Location/Accommodations: 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m., The Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, http://hamptoninn.hilton.com/en/hp/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=AUSDTHX. The TFI room rate is $139.00 per night, plus tax. For further information and to register for this symposium, please click the links above, or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. (3) "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," ~~Key Findings of New Telecom Report Available to Readers~~ Over the next 10 years, residential broadband will migrate to very-high-speed (VHS) broadband, with much higher data rates (24Mb/s and above), and much more continuous traffic, such as video. This and other findings from TFI's new report, "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," as well as purchasing details, can be found at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/r/r02006_awbcwb.html. Authored by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) , the research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, and Verizon. Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports and papers, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page at http://www.tfi.com/pubs. TFI Keynote & Event Speakers For more information about TFI presentations, please visit http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/speaking/index.html or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. For nearly 30 years, TFI has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high- technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future." If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries. TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com. TFI's email list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please reply with "unsubscribe" or contact us at the numbers below and we will promptly remove you from our distribution list. Copyright © 2007, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder. Technology Futures, Inc. Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C  Fax: 512-258-0087 Austin, TX 78750-1859 email: info@tfi.com http://www.tfi.com back to top Futures' Features: Futures' Features: Telecom Report/TFI Seminars/Mfg. Article December 19, 2006 Futures' Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. To unsubscribe, please reply with "unsubscribe." In this issue: (1) "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," ~~Key Findings of New Telecom Report~~ (2) TFI Seminar Series: ~~Mon., Feb. 5: Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_tfms.html~~ ~~Tues., Feb. 6: Broadband Futures Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_bf.html~~ ~~Wed., Feb. 7: Impacts of Broadband on Asset Valuation Symposium, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_ibt.html~~ Seminar Director: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI) (Also Featuring Other Speakers and Invited Panelists) Seminar Location: Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, Austin, Texas Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all three days. (3) "Globalization Transformation" ~~Reed's Law Guides Changes, According to TFI Article~~ _______________________________________________ (1) "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," ~~Key Findings of New Telecom Report~~ A new report by TFI predicts wireless broadband can be economically deployed on a reasonably large scale--perhaps 20% of households--to offer the types of broadband services that DSL and cable modems offer now: that is, speeds in the range 1 Mb/s and relatively bursty traffic. For a list of other key findings and purchasing details for "Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband," please see http://www.tfi.com/pubs/r/r02006_awbcwb.html or contact Debra Robison at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or drobison@tfi.com. Authored by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, and Verizon. _______________________________________________ (2) TFI Seminar Series: ~~Mon., Feb. 5: Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_tfms.html~~ Seminar Overview: This seminar provides a general introduction to the philosophy and methods behind TFI's forecasts in fields such as communications, information technology, and consumer electronics. Representative quantitative and qualitative tools are covered, with an emphasis on practical understanding and practical examples, rather than on theory. Strategic and planning implications of forecasting models will also be stressed. Practical exercises are included to enhance learning. Participants are requested to bring a laptop computer for the quantitative exercises. What you will gain: --A toolbox of practical, proven forecasting techniques. --The ability to project how rapidly new technologies will be adopted in the marketplace. --The ability to identify and evaluate emerging market needs. --The ability to determine the rate of obsolescence for existing technologies. --Interaction with other professionals involved in technology/market forecasting. You should attend this seminar if you are involved in: --Identifying new business opportunities. --Projecting advances in technology. --Developing market strategies. --Developing R&D and/or business plans. --Analyzing competitive threats. --Managing technology projects and programs. --Depreciation and valuation Seminar Topics: --Five Views of the Future™ --Quantitative Methods--Substitution and Trend Analysis --Practical Tips for Forecasting --Applications of Quantitative Methods --Expert Opinion Methods --Nominal Group and Impact Wheels --Exercises Seminar Leader: --Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html Also featuring: --John H. Vanston, Ph.D.(Chairman, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonj.html --David Smith (Vice President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/smithd.html Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all 3 days. Seminar Time and Location/Accommodations: 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m., The Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, http://hamptoninn.hilton.com/en/hp/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=AUSDTHX. The TFI room rate is $139.00 per night, plus tax. For further information and to register for this seminar, please click the links above, or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or hmvmarek@tfi.com. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~~Tues., Feb. 6: Broadband Futures Seminar, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_bf.html-~ Seminar Overview: This seminar is a review of forecasts and insights regarding broadband and its applications. Broadband is now generally recognized as the key to success in the communications industry. It is the focus of the convergence of voice, video, data, and the Internet that is driving the competitive futurescape of the industry. The evolving role of wireless broadband is another key thread in the story. This seminar provides a comprehensive review of these trends and their driving forces, and provides TFI's latest forecasts and insights regarding broadband and its applications including VoIP, IP video, and wireless broadband. This seminar would be of interest to the following organizations: --Telcos --Cable Companies --Wireless Broadband Providers --Equipment Manufacturers --Content Providers --Municipal Broadband Providers --Utility Broadband Providers --Internet Service Providers You should attend this seminar if you are involved in: --Strategic Planning --Network Planning --Technology Planning --Finance --Market Development --Regulatory/Tax/Legal --Depreciation and Assessment Seminar Topics: --Broadband Adoption Forecasts --Forecasts for Increased Bandwidth --IP Video Forecasts: IPTV, Internet Television, HD IP Video --Farewell POTS: VoIP, Instant Messaging, and Integrated Applications --Wireless Broadband: Competitor or Complement? --Multiple Aspects of Digital Convergence --Comparison of Fiber-Based Access Alternatives Seminar Director: --Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html Also featuring: --David Smith (Vice President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/smithd.html Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all 3 days. Seminar Time and Location/Accommodations: 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m., The Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, http://hamptoninn.hilton.com/en/hp/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=AUSDTHX. The TFI room rate is $139.00 per night, plus tax. For further information and to register for this seminar, please click the links above, or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~~Wed., Feb. 7: Impacts of Broadband on Asset Valuation Symposium, http://www.tfi.com/sems/public_ibt.html~~ (We recommend that participants to this symposium also attend the other two seminars.) Symposium Overview: The necessity to provide very high-speed-broadband will cause the obsolescence and ultimate replacement of much of the existing communications equipment in the traditional telephone, wireless, and cable television networks. This symposium will focus on how to quantify the impact of technology change on the value of communications assets. It will also address important current issues in two feature sessions. You should attend this symposium if you are a professional or manager involved in: --Financial Reporting --Price Regulation --Property Taxes --Legal --Asset Valuation Symposium Topics: --Basics of Forecasting Technology Substitutions --Using Technology Forecasting to Value Equipment --Impacts of Competition on Equipment Value --Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Technology Substitutions in Cable, Circuit Equipment, and Switching (2006 Update) --Depreciation Lives for Broadband Assets including Set-Top Boxes --Impacts of Technology Substitution on Wireless Networks --FEATURED SESSION: Point-by-Point Comparison of the BCRI and Industry Views of Replacement Cost and Depreciation --FEATURED SESSION: Who's on First? Valuation Issues with Triple-Play and Quad-Play Convergence Symposium Director: --Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html Also featuring: --Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/hodges.html --Invited panelists to be announced Price: $495 each day or $1,250 for all 3 days. Seminar Time and Location/Accommodations: 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m., The Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown, http://hamptoninn.hilton.com/en/hp/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=AUSDTHX. The TFI room rate is $139.00 per night, plus tax. For further information and to register for this symposium, please click the links above, or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ (3) "Globalization Transformation" ~~Reed's Law Guides Changes, According to TFI Article~~ Manufacturers must evolve into a new model of networking and collaboration if they are to succeed in today's business environment, according to David Smith (Vice President, TFI). Technology changes are now being guided by Reed's Law. Under this law, when a network allows users to form groups, the utility of large networks, particularly social networks, can scale exponentially with the size of the networks. These groups are self-formed through communications via the Internet, electronic devices, or other innovative methods. A key point is that these communicators are not just groups of people anymore, but devices communicating with devices. The fundamental shift in manufacturing and other industries is Reed's Law and self-forming groups. The new model connects research labs, free agents, academia, and new markets. The manufacturing sector cannot miss out on this change if it hopes to thrive in the emerging business economy. To find out more about Mr. Smith's work in this area, please see "Globalization Transformation" at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/w/pdf/TennessBus-8-06-Smith-Skelley.pdf or contact Carrie Vanston at at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ ***Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI*** We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports and papers, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page at http://www.tfi.com/pubs. _______________________________________________ ***TFI Keynote & Event Speakers*** For more information about TFI presentations, please visit http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/speaking/index.html or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com. _______________________________________________ For nearly 30 years, TFI has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high- technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future." If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries. ~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~ Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com. _______________________ TFI's email list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please reply with "unsubscribe" or contact us at the numbers below and we will promptly remove you from our distribution list. Copyright (c) 2006, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder. -- Technology Futures, Inc. -- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898 -- -- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C -- Fax: 512-258-0087 -- -- Austin, TX 78750-1859 -- email: info@tfi.com -- -- http://www.tfi.com -- back to top Futures' Feature Archive Copyright © Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C Austin, TX 78750-1859 Toll Free: (800) TEK-FUTR - Local & Outside USA: (512) 258-8898 FAX: (512) 258-0087 - e-mail: info@tfi.com - http://www.tfi.com