Technology Forecasting Guides



TFI offers educational publications and monographs on forecasting techniques and methodologies. These methodologies can be used to address practical business problems in technology management, finance, marketing, and strategic planning. Be the first to know about new TFI technology forecasting publications.

 


 

Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management Cover Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management
John H. Vanston, Ph.D.

Technology forecasting describes a group of techniques that predict, in quantifiable terms, the direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of technical advance. This management guide details technology forecasting techniques that contribute to better decision making. It provides assistance for organizations to improve planning, operations, and marketing. A must read for decision makers in technical industries, this book is also a popular college textbook.

Table of Contents:
Introduction
Selecting Objectives for Technology Forecasting Activities
Technology Forecasting Techniques
Application of TF Technologies
Initiating, Conducting, and Utilizing a Technology Forecasting Program

Published 1988, Minor revisions in 1995 and 1998, Bound Softcover, 59 pages
ISBN 1-884154-03-4

US $45 Electronic Delivery

 


 

Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting Cover Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., John H. Vanston, Ph.D.

This monograph, written by leading technology forecasters, includes discussion and examples of several substitution models including the Fisher-Pry and Gompertz models. When combined with good judgment and knowledge of the industry, these relatively simple models can usually outperform industry wisdom and the guesses that often pass for market forecasts. Anyone whose future depends on technology markets will find them extraordinarily useful both in gaining insight and understanding, as well as in decision making.

Table of Contents:
Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting
Processes and Patterns of Technology Adoption
The Process of Technologically-Driven Adoption
The Process of Diffusion
The Process of Mortality
Mathematical Models for the Adoption of New Technology
The Fisher-Pry Model
The Gompertz Model
Using Technology Market Adoption for Forecasting
Using Substitution Models to Estimate Additions and Sales
Experience with Forecasting with Substitution Models
Conclusion

Published 1996, Bound Softcover, 27 pages
ISBN 1-884154-07-7

US $25 Hard Copy Mail Delivery
US $25 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

 


 

Practical Technology Forecasting Practical Technology Forecasting
James R. Bright

People interested in the methodologies of technology forecasting will find this text indispensible. It provides an excellent introduction to, and overview of, most of the methods currently in use.

Table of Contents:
Introduction
The Origins and Status of Formal Technology forecasting
What Is Technology Forecasting?
History as an Aid to Forecasting: Analyzing the Process of Technological Innovation
Intuitive Forecasting
Trend Extrapolation
Morphological Analysis
Normative (Goal-Oriented) Forecasting
Forecasting by Monitoring
Dynamic Modeling
Scenarios
Cross-Impact Analysis

Originally published 1970, Revised 1972 and 1980, Bound Softcover, 110 pages
ISBN 1-884154-09-3

US $25 Hard Copy Mail Delivery
US $25 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada