TFI Speaker


TFI President Dr. Lawrence Vanston

LAWRENCE K. VANSTON, Ph.D.

President, Technology Futures, Inc.

Focus Area: Telecommunications Trends and Forecasting


Biography

Dr. Vanston is a popular speaker on the subject of the future of telecommunications and its significance to organizations and people. He provides valid forecasts of future developments in the telecom industry and examines the driving forces behind these developments and their implications. An internationally-recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecommunications industry, his research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively by telecom managers and professionals worldwide.

Since 1985, Dr. Vanston has been the director and principal author of a number of ongoing reports commissioned by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG). Topics have included Internet access requirements, xDSL technologies, ATM switching, fiber optics, video services, and wireless communications. The flagship TFI/TTFG publication, Transforming the Local Exchange Network, is in its sixth edition. In 2013 the TTFG was expanded to the Communications Technology Forecasting Group to include cable television and wireless providers. Dr. Vanston is Editor of the CTFG blog and resource website.

Dr. Vanston is a popular speaker on the future of telecommunications and its significance to organizations and people. Some of the prestigious programs he has spoken at include the IIR Telecom Market Forecasting Conference, Broadband Tax Institute Conference, iHollywood's Triple Play: Voice, Video, Data, Wichita Program for Appraisal for Ad Valorem Taxation, International Communications Forecasting Conference, and the Society of Depreciation Professionals Conference.

Dr. Vanston directs TFI’s popular TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference and TFI Technology Forecasting for Valuation Seminar—both now in their 9th year—for the telecommunications industry. He was honored as Outstanding Speaker of the Year by attendees of the 11th Annual International Communications Forecasting Conference.

Dr. Vanston’s views and the results of his research are cited by general business and industry publications including Telephony, Telektronikk, America’s Network, Fiber Optic Technology, Lightwave, Wired, Broadband Properties, Wireless Systems Design, Communications News, Broadband Properties, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times.

Before joining Technology Futures in 1984, Dr. Vanston spent four years with Bell Labs and Bellcore in network planning where he proposed and evaluated potential new long distance, billing, access, and data services. Prior to that, he was with the Texas Petroleum Research Committee and the Center for Energy Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. His academic achievements include a B.A. in government (1975) and an M.S. (1977) and Ph.D. (1979) in operations research and industrial engineering, all from the University of Texas at Austin.

Corporate Bio

 


Sampling of Topics

 

Telecom Technology Convergence
The telecommunications industry is navigating convergence from all sides: convergence of industries (cable, telephone, and data), convergence of digital media ,wireless and wireline convergence, and convergence of devices (handhelds, computers, and video), to name a few. Dr. Vanston reviews these developments and points out the key things to look out for.

Transforming the Local Exchange Network
The local exchange telecommunications industry is transitioning from a narrowband network of circuit switches and copper cables to a broadband network of packet switches and fiber optics. Dr. Vanston presents the latest TFI forecasts for this transition, covering switching, circuit equipment, and outside plant. He also discusses the competitive impacts from wireless, broadband, cable telephony, and VoIP. Optionally, depending on the audience, he also provides TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for telephone plant.

Technology Forecasting for Telecom: An Overview for Everyone
Dr. Vanston reviews the methods TFI has successfully used for over two decades of forecasting telecom technologies and markets. Participants will gain an appreciation of the practical aspects of forecasting in a rapidly changing environment, including how to use forecasts to avoid big mistakes. Dr. Vanston will review previous forecasts that have stood the test of time, as well as TFI's current forecasts for key telecom technologies.

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What Audiences Say

"Thank you for making our Telecom Executive Forum such a success. You gave our members many provocative ideas and some great insights into what might be coming down the telecom road in the future."
—National Telecommunications Coorporative Association

"We received excellent reviews from your presentation and hope to have you back next year."
—iHollywood Forum

"The advancement of our program is a tribute to your personal presentation skills. On behalf of all of us, I would like to thank you for your fine work. We look forward to working with you in the future."
—Wireless Data Forum

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Sampling of Presentations  

2014

TFI conducts its "Eighth Annual TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference" and "Technology Forecasting Seminar" in Austin, Texas.
Larry Vanston is Conference/Seminar Director, with Ray Hodges and invited panelists also presenting (January 24-25, 2013).

2013

Minitrends ConferenceLarry Vanston speaks on "Analyzing MiniTrends: Drivers & Constraints"
Minitrends 2013: The Intregration of Profit & Social Responsibility, Holiday Inn Town Lake, Austin, Texas (October 2-3, 2012).
Appraisal for Ad Valorem Taxation Logo
Larry Vanston speaks on "Telecom Forecasting"
27th Annual Wichita Program, Appraisal for Ad Valorem Taxation of Communications, Energy and Transportation Properties in Wichita, Kansas (July 27-31, 2013).
TFI conducts its "Eighth Annual TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference" and "Pre-Conference Seminar: Technology Forecasting for Valuation" in Austin, Texas.
Larry Vanston is Conference/Seminar Director, with Ray Hodges and invited panelists also presenting (January 24-25, 2013).

2012

Minitrends ConferenceLarry Vanston speaks on "Evaluating an Identified MiniTrend" and "Scanning the MiniTrends World: Telecom Trends"
Minitrends 2012: Translating Emerging Trends Into Business Opportunities, Omni Austin Hotel Downtown, Austin, Texas (October 17-18, 2012).
IFF LogoLarry Vanston speaks on "Broadband Traffic Forecasts and the Implications for Different Access Technologies."
The International Institute of Forecasters'32nd International Symposium on Forecasting, Boston, MA (June 25, 2012).
IFF LogoLarry Vanston speaks on "Forecasting Technology Change and its Impact on Asset Lives."
Institute for Professionals in Taxation 36th Annual Conference, Indian Wells, CA (June 24, 2012).
TFI conducts its Seventh Annual TFI Asset Valuation Conference and Pre-Conference Seminar: Technology Forecasting for Valuation in Austin, Texas.
Larry Vanston is Conference/Seminar Director, with Ray Hodges and invited panelists also presenting (January 18-20, 2012).

2011

Larry Vanston speaks on "Set Top Boxes-Depreciation Forecasting ."
FCIAAO 2011 TPP Seminar sponsored by the Florida Chapter of IAAO, Lake Mary, Florida (December 6, 2011).
Society of Depreciation LogoLarry Vanston speaks on "Life Cycle Analysis /Technology Forecasting. "
The 24th 2011 Annual Conference and Training of The Society of Depreciation Professionals in Atlanta, Georgia (September 23, 2011).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Telecommunications Issues and Values" with Jerry Weinert of AUS.
New York State Assessors' Association 2011 Annual Meeting and Seminar in Buffalo, NY (September 13, 2011).
IFF LogoLarry Vanston speaks on "Forecasts of Wireless vs. Wireline Broadband Access" and "What to Look for in a Good Forecast"
The International Institute of Forecasters' 31st Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Prague, Czech Republic (June 26-29, 2012).
TFI conducts its Sixth Annual TFI Asset Valuation Conference and Pre-Conference Seminar: Technology Forecasting for Valuation in Austin, Texas.
Larry Vanston is Conference/Seminar Director, with Ray Hodges and invited panelists also presenting (January 12-14, 2011).

2010

Larry Vanston speaks on "Forecasting New Technologies in Telecommunications: Past Experience and Future Directions."
INFORMS' Energizing the Future Conferencein Austin, Texas (November 7, 2010).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Integration of Telecommunication Networks, Cable TV Networks and the Internet in the U.S.: Opportunities and Problems."
Columbia University Continuing Education Program in New York, New York (October 8, 2010).
International Symposium on Forecasting LogoTFI conducts 3-day Technology Forecasting Seminar in Kazakhstan.
Larry Vanston is Seminar Director. Sponsored by the U.S. Civilian Research & Development Foundation (CRDF) for the Kazakhstan's Innovation Research Fund, Astana, Kazakhstan (July 21-23, 2010).
International Symposium on Forecasting LogoLarry Vanston speaks on "Telecom Forecasting for the 2010s".
The International Institute of Forecasters' 30th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting in San Diego, California (June 20-23, 2010).
TFI Asset Valuation Conference LogoTFI conducts its Fifth Annual TFI Asset Valuation Conference and Pre-Conference Seminar: Technology Forecasting for Valuation in Austin, Texas.
Larry Vanston is Conference/Seminar Director, with John Vanston, Ray Hodges, and invited panelists also presenting (January 13-15, 2010).

2009

Larry Vanston speaks on "Hot Topics in Broadband and Telecommunications".
The 23rd Annual Meeting of The Society of Depreciation Professionals in Albuquerque, New Mexico (October 5, 2009).
Larry Vanston conducts one-day pre-conference on "Convergence Within the Communications Industry—What Does It All Mean?"
IIR Telecoms Market Forecasting 2009 in London, England (September 28, 2009).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Depreciation and Indexes: How do They ‘Factor’ In?"
39th Annual Wichita Program, Appraisal for Ad Valorem Taxation of Communications, Energy and Transportation Properties in Wichita, Kansas (July 28, 2009).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Technology Forecasting in the Telecommunications Industry."
The National Academies' Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies in Washington, D.C.(March 3-4, 2009).
Larry Vanston is conference director, presenter, and panelist at the 4th Annual TFI Asset Valuation Conference.
"Overview of TFI Forecasts and Life Estimates," "New TFI Research: Access Line Forecast, Long Distance Study, Transforming the Local Exchange, Others," "Obsolescence in Long-Distance and Local Exchange Networks" panelist, "Multiple Perspectives on Technological Obsolescence: Financial Reporting, Regulatory, Appraisal, and Valuation " panel chair, and "Current Issues for Technology Obsolescence and Asset Valuation" panelist
TFI Asset Valuation Conference in Austin, Texas January 14-15, 2009).
Larry Vanston is seminar director and presenter at TFI's Broadband Futures Seminar.
"Overview of Telecom Trends and Broadband Forecasts," "Forecasts for Fiber in the Loop," and "Alternatives for Broadband Access: The Dynamics" panelist.
Broadband Futures Seminar in Austin, Texas (January 14, 2009).
Larry Vanston is seminar director and presenter for TFI's Technology Forecasting Mini Seminar
"Technology Substitution," "Application to Depreciation and Valuation," and "Technology Forecasting Tips."
Technology Forecasting Mini-Seminar™ in Austin, Texas (January 13, 2008).
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2008

Larry Vanston speaks on "Telecom Technology Convergence."
South Texas College's Information Technology Forum 2008 in Mission, Texas (November 14, 2008).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Communications."
The National Association of Property Tax Representatives--Transportation, Energy, & Communications Conference in Austin, Texas (October 28, 2008).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Telecom Technology Convergence."
Dallas Central Appraisal District's Management Retreat in Dallas, Texas (October 9, 2008).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Technology Forecasting—The Essential Ingredients."
The 22nd Annual Meeting of The Society of Depreciation Professionals in Greenville, South Carolina (September 23, 2008).
Larry Vanston leads seminar in TFI's partnership with E-Solutions Caribbean in conducting TFI's Telecom Trends In-House Seminar.
The Telecommunications Company Suriname in Suriname (August 18-19, 2008).
Larry Vanston presents webinar on "Rational Exuberance: Forecasts for Broadband Bandwidth Demand."
The Fiber-to-the-Home Council's Industry Update Webinar Series (February 27, 2008).
Larry Vanston is conference director and presenter at TFI's Third Annual TFI Asset Valuation Conference.
"Overview of TFI Forecasts and Life Estimates for Wireline Network Technology ," "New TFI Recommendations for ILEC Fiber Optic Lives," "Depreciation Lives for Broadband Assets," "Impacts of Convergence on Asset Valuation: Finding Common Ground," and "Obsolescence in Long-Distance and Local Transport Networks."
TFI Asset Valuation Conference in Austin, Texas (February 8, 2008).
Larry Vanston is seminar director and presenter at TFI's Broadband Futures Seminar.
"Overview of Trends in Telecommunications," "Review of Technology Substitution/Adoption Forecasting," "Broadband Forecasts: Households, Bandwidth, and IP Video/HDTV," "Forecasts for Fiber in the Loop," "Network Access Alternatives," "Wireless Broadband: Competitor or Complement?" and "Voice in a Broadband World,"
Broadband Futures Seminar in Austin, Texas (February 7, 2008).
Larry Vanston is Seminar Director and presenter at TFI's Technology Forecasting Mini-Seminar™.
"Extrapolator Techniques," and "Technology Forecasting Tips."
Technology Forecasting Mini-Seminar™ in Austin, Texas (February 6, 2008).
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2007

Larry Vanston speaks on "Meeting the Challenge of Accurately Forecasting New Service Opportunities in a Converging Telecoms and Media Market" and is Chair the final day of the conference on the subject of “Accurately Forecasting Take Up of New Technologies & Services.”
IIR Telecoms Market Forecasting 2007 in London, England (September 27, 2007).
Larry Vanston gives Keynote Speech on "Communications Convergence: Promises and Pitfalls Along the Way."
Converging Technology Seminar sponsored by the Washington State Department of Revenue in Olympia, Washington (September 25, 2007).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Broadband Convergence: Where We're Going and What it Means."
The 21th Annual Meeting of The Society of Depreciation Professionals in Rapid City, South Dakota (September 24, 2007).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Technological Change and Convergence in Telecommunications."
IAAO Councils and Sections Seminar sponsored by the International Association of Assessing Officers in Seattle, Washington (April 25, 2007).
Larry Vanston is seminar director and presenter at TFI's Impacts of Broadband on Asset Valuation Symposium.
"Forecasting Technology Substitutions, Competition, and their Impacts on Depreciation/Valuation," "Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Technology Substitutions in Cable, Circuit Equipment, and Switching (2006 Update)," "Point-by-Point Comparison of the BCRI and the Industry Views of Replacement Cost and Depreciation," and "Valuation Issues with Triple-Play and Quad-Play Convergence."
Impacts of Broadband on Asset Valuation Symposium in Austin, Texas (February 7, 2007).
Larry Vanston is seminar director and presenter at TFI's Broadband Futures Seminar.
"Overview of Trends in Telecommunications," "Review of Substitution/Adoption Forecasting," "Broadband Forecasts: Households, Bandwidth, and IP Video/HDTV," "Comparison of Fiber-Based Access Alternatives," "Farewell POTS: VoIP, Instant Messaging, and Intregrated Applications," and "Wireless Broadband: Competitor or Complement?"
Broadband Futures Seminar in Austin, Texas (February 6, 2007).
Larry Vanston is seminar director and presenter at TFI's Technology Forecasting Mini-Seminar.
"Extrapolator Techniques," and "Technology Forecasting Tips."
Technology Forecasting Mini-Seminar™ in Austin, Texas (February 5, 2007).
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2006

Larry Vanston speaks at conference on "Examining the Impact of Price and Other Factors on Forecasting for Technology Adoption Rates" and conducts one-day TFI Post Conference Workshop entitled "Technology Adoption and Substitution Forecasting in Telecoms"
IIR Telecoms Market Forecasting 2006 in Lisbon, Portugal (September 28, 2006).
Larry Vanston speaking on "Convergence within the Communications Industry (Property Tax)."
2006 Broadband Tax Institute Conference in Chicago, Illinois (September 19, 2006).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Convergence Within the Communications Industry—What Does It All Mean?"
36th Annual Wichita Program, Appraisal for Ad Valorem Taxation of Communications, Energy and Transportation Properties in Wichita, Kansas (July 25, 2006).
Larry Vanston gives Keynote Speech on "The 5 Technology Trends You Can't Ignore."
ITEC Dallas in Dallas, Texas (June 7, 2006).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Today's Kids: Telecom at 30."
PoliTech 2006 sponsored by the Telecommunications Association of Michigan in Lansing, Michigan (May 24, 2006).
Larry Vanston gives Keynote Speech on "The 5 Technology Trends You Can't Ignore."
ITEC Houston in Houston, Texas (May 17-18).
Larry Vanston gives Keynote Speech on "The Future Is Now."
National Telecommunications Cooperative Association's Telecom Executive Forum in Palm Springs, California (March 27, 2006).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Wireless Trends: Promise of WiMax."
Fast Forward Wireless: Future Business Opportunities sponsored by MIT Enterprise Forum in Austin, Texas (March 8, 2006).
Larry Vanston is seminar director and presenter at TFI' Impacts of Broadband on Telecom Depreciation and Asset Valuation.
"The Impact of Technology Substitution and Competition on Asset Lives and Economic Value," "Forecasts for Telecommunications," "Residual Use of Legacy Facilities," and "Property Tax and Valuation Issues."
Impacts of Broadband on Telecom Depreciation and Asset Valuation in Austin, Texas (February 8, 2006).
Larry Vanston is Seminar Director and presenter at TFI's Technology Forecasting Seminar.
"Extrapolator Techniques," and "Technology Forecasting Tips."
Technology Forecasting Seminar in Austin, Texas (February 6, 2006).
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2005

Larry Vanston speaks on "So This Time Do the Telcos Have It Right?" and "Advanced Services, Beyond the Hype."
Dr. Vanston also writes analyst paper for "deluxe" attendees entitled "Forecasts for Broadband Communications." iHollywood's Triple Play: Voice, Video, Data at Telecom '05 in Las Vegas, Nevada (October 24, 2005).
Larry Vanston speaks on "VoIP and Fixed Wireless."
The 19th Annual Meeting of The Society of Depreciation Professionals in San Antonio, Texas (September 13, 2005).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Forecasts of Skyrocketing Bandwidth Needs"
Municipal Broadband Conference in Nashville, Tennessee (July 11, 2005).

2004

Larry Vanston speaks on "Broadband Wireless Market Forecasts" and TFI is a Gold Sponsor.
2nd Annual Wireless Networking and Communications Group (WNCG) Symposium in Austin, Texas. TFI is proud to be a Gold Sponsor of the event (October 20-22, 2004).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Technology Substitution and Competition on the U.S. Telecommunications Industry".
34th Annual Wichita Program: Appraisal for Ad Valorem Taxation of Communications, Energy, and Transportation Properties in Wichita, Kansas (July 27, 2004).

2003

Larry Vanston speaks about what TFI's 25 years means within the framework of the TFI's Five Views of the Future™.
TFI's 25th Anniversary Celebration (July 23, 2003).

2002

Larry Vanston speaks on “The Local Exchange Network, 2015.”
20th Annual International Communications Forecasting Conference (ICFC) in San Francisco, California. (June 26, 2002)
Larry Vanston speaks on “The Future of the Local Exchange Network, 2015.”
NY State Telephone Association Conference in Syracuse, New York. (June 5, 2002)
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2001

Larry Vanston presents Keynote Speech on "Selecting the Optimum Forecasting Technique for a Specific Task" and Chairs the 1st day of conference.
Forecasting the Telecoms Market International Conference sponsored by the IBC Telecoms Division of Informa Group's Telecoms & Media Group, London, England. (October 8-9, 2001)
Larry Vanston conducts one-day public seminar Technology Market Forecasting for Telecommunications: Quantitative Methods & Forecasts™.
In conjunction with the Forecasting the Telecoms Market International Conference in London, England. (October 9, 2001)
Larry Vanston speaks on "An Overview of Current Forecasts for Telecommunications Markets."
19th Annual International Communications Forecasting Conference (ICFC), Washington, D.C. (June 27-29, 2001)
Larry Vanston presents two-day seminar entitled Technology Market Forecasting for Telecommunications: Quantitative Methods & Forecasts™.
In conjunction with the International Communications Forecasting Conference (ICFC) in Washington, D.C. (June 25-26, 2001)
Larry Vanston presents "Tips for Improving Technology Forecasting and Planning."
Forecasting and Planning Technology™ in Arlington, Virginia ( June 18-20, 2001).

2000

Larry Vanston is Seminar Director and makes several presentations.
Telecom Trends: Markets " Technologies™ in Austin, Texas. (November 16-17, 2000)
Larry Vanston presents "Tips for Improving Technology Forecasting and Planning."
Forecasting and Planning Technology™ in Austin, Texas (November 13-15, 2000).
Larry Vanston speaks on "Competition for Local Telecommunications Services: Forecasts & Impacts."
18th Annual International Communications Forecasting Conference (ICFC), Seattle, Washington. (September 26-29, 2000)
Larry Vanston is Seminar Director and makes several presentations at 2-day seminar entitled Technology Market Forecasting for Telecommunications: Quantitative Methods & Forecasts™.
In conjunction with the International Communications Forecasting Conference in Seattle, Washington. (September 25-26, 2000)
Larry Vanston speaks on "Changes in Telecommunications Property, Wireline Technology."
30th Annual Wichita Program: Appraisal for Ad Valorem Taxation of Communications, Energy, and Transportation Properties, Wichita, Kansas. (July 31, 2000)
Larry Vanston is Seminar Director and makes several presentations.
Telecom Trends: Markets & Technologies™ in Austin, Texas. (May 11-12, 2000).
Larry Vanston presents "Tips for Improving Technology Forecasting and Planning."
Forecasting and Planning Technology™ in Austin, Texas (May 8-10, 2000).
Larry Vanston is Seminar Director and makes several presentations.Telecom Trends: Markets & Technologies™ in Redondo Beach, California (January 27-28, 2000).
Larry Vanston presents "Practical Forecasting & Planning Tips."
Forecasting, Planning, and Managing Technology™ in Redondo Beach, California (January 24-26, 2000).

1999

Larry Vanston speaks on "The Future of Demand Telecommunications Analysis and Forecasting In the Information Age."
Third European Workshop on Techno-Economics For Multimedia Networks and Services in Aveiro, Portugal. (December 14, 1999)
Larry Vanston speaks on "Technology Forecasting Applications in Depreciation."
Property Accounting Conference sponsored by Edison Electric Institute/American Gas Association in Coronado, California. (December 6, 1999)
Larry Vanston gives Keynote Speech on "New Telecom Networks and Services."
The 5th Norwegian Telecommunications Conference in Oslo, Norway. (October 5, 1999)
Larry Vanston speaks on "Emerging Access Markets & Technologies" and "Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services: Forecasts & Impacts."
WIK's Masterclass Program: Telecommunications Demand Analysis and Forecasting in the Information Age in Bad Honnef, Germany. (April 12-13, 1999)
Larry Vanston speaks on "Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services: Forecasts & Impacts."
Telecom Business '99 in Anaheim, California. (March 30, 1999)
Larry Vanston speaks on "The Future of Wireless Competition."
The 1999 Western Communications Forum in Dallas, Texas. (February 17, 1999)

1998

Larry Vanston gives Keynote Speech entitled "Using Information and Communications Technology to Lead a Global Company."
The Global Business Forum, at the University of South Carolina at Charleston. (November 5, 1998)
Larry Vanston conducts one-day seminar, "Technology Forecasting for the Telecom Industry."
Canadian Venture Capital Association's Venture Capital: Planning Today for Tomorrow Conference, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (June 11, 1998)
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Speaker Contact

For more information on Dr. Vanston's speaking services, please contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, cvanston@tfi.com, or fill out contact TFI. We appreciate your interest and welcome your inquiries.

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Recent Publications by Dr. Vanston

Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Sixth Edition
Transforming the Local Exchange Network: 6th Edition


Practical Forecasting Tips Article Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption
Complimentary!

Technology Forecasting for Telecom Article Technology Forecasts for
US Tele-
communications Network
Complimentary!

Forecasts of Access Line Competition Report CoverTransforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition
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