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Technology & Telecom Reports
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- --Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network
- --Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment
- --A New Telecommunications World Complimentary!
- --Broadband Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers
- --Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast Complimentary!
- --Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband
- --Home Technology Integration, A Technology Forecast Complimentary!
- --Biotechnology: A Guide to Business and Workplace Development
- --Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Third Edition
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- --Forecasts for Broadband Communications: Analyst Paper by TFI
- --Forecasts for Higher Bandwidth Broadband Services
- --Homeland Security, A Technology Forecast Complimentary!
- --Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange
- --Fuel Cells, A Technology Forecast Complimentary!
- --Nanotechnology: A Technology Forecast Complimentary!
- --Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange
- --Programs for Emerging Technologies Complimentary!
- --The Local Exchange Network in 2015 Complimentary!
- --Salvage and Cost of Removal for LEC Investments
- --White Papers, Articles, and Complimentary Reports Complimentary!
- --Technology and Telecom Reports Archive
Technology Futures publishes in-depth research reports and papers providing analyses and forecasts of emerging technologies and markets. These reports and papers are written for decision-makers looking for the competitive edge in specific technology and market areas. The topics include many of the non-traditional telephony products and services from the broadcast, cable, computer, satellite, and wireless industries. Many of the publications are sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, OFS, Qwest, SBC Communications, and Verizon. To be informed of new Technology Futures technology and telecom reports and other Technology Futures publications, please click here. (More Technology Futures' publications can be found at White Papers, Articles, and Complimentary Reports.)
Depreciation
Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges
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This report documents the changes in TFI's recommended depreciation life for newly-installed fiber optic cable in the local exchange network. TFI's prior recommendation was 15 to 20 years, which reflected the combined impacts of physical mortality, technological substitution, and access line losses due to competition. TFI's new recommendation is 20 to 25 years. This applies to the fiber cable that is going into the massive network upgrades such as AT&T's Project Lightspeed and Verizon's FiOS. The new recommendation recognizes that the ILECs are making these investments with full knowledge that the market is competitive. Also, there is no obvious technological replacement for the full-spectrum fiber the ILECs are now placing.
Forecasts
for Local Exchange Switching Equipment
Ray L. Hodges and Lawrence K. Vanston,
Ph.D.
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Incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) still mostly use traditional circuit switching equipment for voice services. This represents a tremendous sunk investment: $62.5 billion in digital circuit switching at year-end 2006. Newer competitors are using VoIP (voice over Internet protocol) switching, which are significantly less expensive and much more flexible, especially in offering integrated applications. This study examines the main options available to ILECs regarding the future of their circuit switches and provides recommendations for depreciation lives.
A New Telecommunications World
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
The telephone network was built to provide narrowband voice service to essentially
every home and office. That world is disappearing. The reasons are many including
convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, wireless, and others.
This complimentary paper covers these and gives forecasts of the probable telecom
future.
September 2007, 12 pages
Broadband
Equipment Lives for Local Exchange Carriers
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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Technology Futures forecasts continued increases in broadband speeds, hastening the obsolescence of broadband investment. This report presents recommendations for depreciation lives for broadband equipment such as video set-top boxes, headend equipment, and broadband loop electronics, including DSLAMs, DSL modems, and BPON equipment. Discussing the report, author Dr. Lawrence Vanston states, "The business of incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) is transitioning from primarily voice to primarily high-speed broadband and video. This means that equipment devoted to delivering broadband and video will come to dominate the useful investment of ILECs. Much of this equipment is significantly different than traditional narrowband equipment and, thus, may have different depreciation lives."
Featured Graph: Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate
Mechatronics, A Technology Forecast
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, Jim Brazell, Eliza Evans, Ph.D., James A Irwin, and Michael A. Bettersworth, MA
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Mechatronics is another way of saying "intelligent mechanical systems" and it is the foundation of many 21st century enabling technologies. This publication, co-authored by Technology Futures' staff, includes an overview of mechatronic technology and analysis of related occupations and salaries, inventory of existing mechatronic curriculum and considerations for colleges considering developing related programs and lists of industry experts and mechatronics companies.
Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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Technology Futures predicts wireless broadband can be economically deployed on a reasonably large scale--perhaps 20% of households--to offer the types of broadband services that DSL and cable modems offer now: that is, speeds in the range 1 Mb/s and relatively bursty traffic. This report provides an independent assessment of the potential for wireless broadband to compete with residential broadband services offered by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) and cable companies.
Home Technology Integration, A Technology Forecast
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, Michael A. Bettersworth, MA, and Wayne Caswell
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The market for integrating digital technology into residences is expanding beyond large, custom-built homes and into the broader mass housing market. The home technology integration (HTI) sector includes audio, video, networking, control systems, air conditioning, security and computer technology. This publication, co-authored by Technology Futures' staff, includes an overview of HTI technology, the nature of HTI jobs and skills, a directory of many HTI companies, and market drivers and constraints impacting the HTI industry and employment.
Biotechnology: A Guide to Business and Workplace Development
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott
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A must-have report for individuals and small and medium-sized businesses interested in entering or expanding activities in the biotechnology industry. The report gives a detailed overview and analysis of employment opportunities, drivers for success, funding sources, potential buyers and sellers, and research and commercialization opportunities. It includes direct input from experts currently working in the biotech area.
Featured Graph: Importance of Various Factors to Biotech Company Success
Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Third Edition
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. and Ray L. Hodges
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The latest edition of this report presents the latest Technology Futures' forecasts for the North American local exchange network covering switching, circuit equipment, and outside plant. The report also includes Technology Futures' latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plants, accounting for technology displacement, and loss of access lines due to competition.
Featured Graph: ILEC Narrowband Access Lines and Broadband Connections
Featured Graph: Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, Percentage of Households
Forecasts for Broadband Communications: An Analyst Paper by Technology Futures, Inc.
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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We expect broadband to continue to be adopted at a rapid rate, and ultimately, reach levels of penetration comparable to other popular consumer electronics. This paper provides Technology Futures' forecasts and analyses for the growth of residential broadband and higher broadband speeds.
Emerging Technology Programs: Advanced Digital Manufacturing, Hybrid Vehicles, Micro-Electromechanical Systems, and Computer Forensics
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, Program Director: Michael A. Bettersworth
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Technology Futures identifies four emerging technologies worthy of detailed analysis, and found three offered promising opportunities for college graduates. A portion of the report focuses primarily on educational activities in Texas community and technical colleges, while the remainder is a resource for a broader-based audience. The report is housed on the TSTC website.
Forecasts for Higher Bandwidth Broadband Services
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. , Ray L. Hodges, and Joseph Savage
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This report forecasts the increase in broadband data rates and discusses the applications, especially IP Video, driving the increase. It also covers the current leaders --South Korea, Japan, and Italy. By 2006, U.S. broadband penetration will likely reach 50% and a shift to data rates of 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s will have begun. By 2010, 75% broadband penetration is likely, with 10% to 20% of households subscribing to very high-speed-broadband.
Featured Graph: Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, Percentage of Households
Featured Graph: Provisional Forecast of U.S. Households Using High-Definition IP Video
Homeland Security, A Technology Forecast
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, Program Director: Michael A. Bettersworth
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This report, written by Technology Futures staff members, offers information, insights and forecasts for those interested in homeland security. A portion of the report focuses primarily Texas community and technical colleges and homeland security activities in Texas. The remainder is a resource for a broader-based audience.
Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs). For example, after years of high growth, the number of ILEC retail narrowband switched access lines peaked at 181.3 million lines in 1999 and has continuously declined since then, falling to 162.7 million lines by December 2002. This report documents Technology Futures' latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the ILECs.
Featured Graph: Forecast ILEC Narrowband Access Lines and Broadband Connections
Fuel Cells: A Technology Forecast
John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott, Program Director: Michael A. Bettersworth
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The report addresses the state of the art in fuel cells, the nature and rate of technical advances, potential employment demands, and forecasts and insights on the future of fuel cells. A portion of the report focuses primarily on two-year Texas colleges and fuel cell activities in Texas, the remainder is a resource for a broader-based audience.
Nanotechnology: A Technology Forecast
Dr. John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Henry Elliott,
Edited by: Larry Grulick, Ph.D., Michael A. Bettersworth
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This report addresses the current state of the technology, projects the emergence of nanotechnology markets, and examines the factors that might accelerate or deter the development of these markets. The first part of the report focuses on two-year colleges in Texas, the remainder lends itself as a resource to a broader-based audience.
Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange
Ray L. Hodges and Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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This report addresses the economic life of single-mode fiber optic cable installed by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) in the local exchange network. The depreciation lives of these cables are derived from analysis of demand, technology substitution, physical mortality, and competitive factors. The technology and competitive issues driving network changes are explained in detail.
Featured Graph: Substitution of Advanced Fiber for Standard Single-Mode Fiber Optic Cable Based on Interoffice and Feeder Fiber for Metallic Substitutions
Programs for Emerging Technologies
Michael A. Bettersworth, Larry Grulick, Ph.D., and John H. Vanston, Ph.D.
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Technology Futures has developed a new process, Programs for Emerging Technologies, in coordination with the Texas State Technical Colleges (TSTC) System, for identifying emerging technologies and then forecasting associated technical advances, market developments, and employment opportunities.
The Local Exchange Network in 2015
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.
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It's 2015. Where are we in the LE telecom technology arena? What are broadband data rates? What's the impact of wireless? What's the network architecture? Viewed from the perspective of 2001, find out author Larry Vanston's scenario backed up his extensive expertise and Technology Futures' technology forecasts! Find out more about 2015 to better prepare for the future!
Salvage and Cost of Removal for LEC Investments
Ray L. Hodges
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This report provides a comprehensive review of salvage and cost of removal factors for the local exchange carriers. It analyzes recent salvage trends and issues for computers, circuit switching, and outside plant investments, including non-metallic cable, poles, and conduit. It provides an identification and assessment of potential changes in salvage and cost of removal factors due to current and future technology trends.