Futures' Features Archive
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Futures' Features is TFI's free e-letter informing clients and contacts of new TFI new forecasting and telecom reports and white papers, dates of upcoming seminars and conferences, technology management insights, and special offers for our readers. Below are several recent issues of Futures' Features. To subscribe to Futures' Features, please click here.
April 2009 | November 2008 | May 2008 | Archive
Futures' Features: Forecasting Article/Telecom Article & Reports/Track Record
April 2009
April 23, 2009--Futures' Features is a forecasting resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. (See bottom of e-mail for website view and opt-out.)
Thanks to all who made our 4th Annual Technology Futures Asset Valuation Seminars and Conference in January so successful! We will announce early 2010 dates soon.
(1) Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption
~~Read TFI Forecasting Article~~(2) Technology Forecasts for US Telecommuncations Network
~~Read TFI Telecom Forecasting Article~~(3) TFI's Updated Track Record Rocks!
~~20 Track Record Successes Dating from 1986 to Present~~(4) Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition
~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~(5) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition
~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~=======================
(1) Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption
~~Read TFI Forecasting Article~~Based on a talk we have been giving for 15 years, this article provides examples, philosophy, and practical advice for addressing how, when necessary, "quick and dirty forecasts can be long-lasting and beautiful." The article, by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(TFI President), appears in the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk.
For more information on TFI's work in the technology forecasting area, please see Forecasting Services or contact Larry Vanston or John Vanston at (512) 258-8898 or by e-mail at info@tfi.com.
_______________________(2) Technology Forecasts for US Telecommuncations Network
~~Read TFI Telecom Forecasting Article~~Based on our continuing work in the telecom area, this article discusses the factors such as convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, and wireless that are driving the future of telecommunications. The article, by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(TFI President), appears in the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk.
For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (512) 258-8898 or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(3) TFI's Updated Track Record Rocks!
~~20 Track Record Successes Dating from 1986 to Present~~Our forecasts are based on a strong foundation of technique and experience. Yes, we have been in forecasting a long time with much success!
_______________________(4) Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition
~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers. This report documents TFI's latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the incumbent local exchange.
Written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (TFI President), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For the featured graph, ILEC Wireline Access Lines and Broadband Connections, and further details, please visit Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition
For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (512) 258-8898 or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(5) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition
~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~The fourth edition of our flagship publication Transforming the Local Exchange Network, this report presents the latest TFI forecasts covering switching, circuit equipment, metallic cable, and fiber cable. The report also includes TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, recommendations which take into account technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition
Written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. To view the featured graph, U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, table of contents, and list of figures and for purchasing details, please visit Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition.
For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________________________________Let Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Work For You:
We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports and papers, as well as complementary white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page.
_______________________________________________TFI Keynote & Event Speakers:
The year is off to a good start. We've already given presentations at The National Academies' meeting on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies in Washington, D.C. and at the Motor Drive and Automation Conference in Orlando, Florida. Please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com for more information.
_______________________________________________For 30 years Technology Futures has provided its clients with quality custom research, forecasts, and trend analyses in the telecom, high-tech, and other industries. For 30 years, we have drawn on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications to combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the analyst to be Your Bridge to the Future.
If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us at (512) 258-8898 or info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries.
~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~
Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com.
_______________________TFI's e-mail list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please e-mail info@tfi.com or call (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898.
Copyright (c) 2009, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved.
All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder.
-- Technology Futures, Inc. --
-- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C --
-- Austin, TX 78750-1859 --
-- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, Fax: 512-258-0087 --
-- info@tfi.com, http://www.tfi.com --
Futures' Features: Jan Seminars/Jan Conference/Reports on Telecom & Mechatronics
November 2008November 2008--Futures Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others. We have the major offerings listed first, with further details below.(1) Fourth Annual Technology Futures Asset Valuation Seminars and Conference:
~~Technology Forecasting for Depreciation and Valuation Seminar, Tuesday, January 13, Austin, Texas~~
~~Broadband Futures Seminar, Wednesday, January 14, Austin, Texas~~
~~Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference, Thursday, January 14-15, Austin, Texas~~Series Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(President, TFI). Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D. (Chairman, TFI), Ray Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), and invited panelists. All sessions wil be held at the Courtyard Marriott Downtown, Austin, Texas. The fee is $495 each day, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. More information is available at links and below.
(2) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition
(3) Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together
~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~
~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems"~~(4) Coming Soon to Futures' Features:
~~New TFI Report: Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition~~
~~New Complimentary Article: Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption~~
~~New Complimentary Article: Forecasts for the US Telecommunications Network~~=======================
(1) Fourth Annual Technology Futures Asset Valuation Seminars and Conference:
~~Technology Forecasting for Depreciation and Valuation Seminar, Tuesday, January 13, Austin, Texas~~
This seminar provides an excellent overview of general technology forecasting methods and techniques applicable to depreciation and valuation.
~~Broadband Futures Seminar, Wednesday, January 14, Austin, Texas~~
Broadband is now generally recognized as the key to success in the communications industry. It has become top priority for carriers, suppliers, users, and potential new players. This seminar provides a comprehensive review of broadband trends and their driving forces, and provides Technology Futures' latest forecasts and insights regarding broadband and it applications including VoIP, IP video, and wireless broadband. It focuses on the convergence of voice, video, data, and the Internet that is driving the competitive futurescape of the industry.
~~Technology Futures Asset Valuation Conference, Thursday, January 14-15, Austin, Texas~~Technology change, convergence, and new disrupters are turning the traditional telecommunications industry upside down and accelerating technology obsolescence in the traditional telephone, wireless, and cable television networks. This conference focuses on how to quantify the impact of technology change on the value of communications assets. Geared to property tax, depreciation, and valuation professionals in the communications industry, conference presenters and panels discuss current forecasting, broadband and wireless communications, and valuation issues.
Series Leader: Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D.(President, TFI). Also featuring: John H. Vanston, Ph.D. (Chairman, TFI), Ray Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), and invited panelists. All sessions wil be held at the Courtyard Marriott Downtown, Austin, Texas. The fee is $495 each day, $945 for two days, or $1,250 for all three days. Please visit Seminar/Conference Series or contact Helen Mary Marek at (800) 835-3887 or info@tfi.com for more information and to register.
_______________________(2) Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition
~~New TFI Telecom Report with Featured Graph~~TFI announces the availability of the fourth edition of its flagship publication Transforming the Local Exchange Network. This report presents the latest TFI forecasts covering switching, circuit equipment, metallic cable, and fiber cable. The report also includes TFI's latest recommendations on depreciation lives for local exchange telephone plant, accounting for technology displacement and loss of access lines due to competition.
Written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. To view the featured graph, U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, table of contents, and list of figures and for purchasing details, please visit Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fourth Edition.
For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(3) Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together
~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems"~~Products and systems, such as automobiles, have become increasingly complex, especially as computerized control and software systems have become ubiquitous. Those who design such equipment must have skills that integrate mechanical, electronic, and computerized control and software systems. Written by Henry Elliott (TFI Consultant), John Vanston (TFI Chairman), and James Irwin, this white paper provides recommendations for academic, government, and industry leaders to ensure that U.S. industry fully understands and utilizes this technology to maintain the country's economic competitiveness
A complimentary copy of the report the paper is based on, Mechatronics: A Technology Forecast, is also available to our readers.
For more information on TFI's work on mechatronics and other emerging energy technologies, please contact Henry Elliott at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(4) Coming Soon to Futures' Features:
~~New TFI Report: Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange: Fourth Edition~~
Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers. This soon to be published report documents Technology Futures' latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the ILECs.
~~New Complimentary Article: Practical Tips for Forecasting New Technology Adoption~~
Based on a talk we have been giving for 15 years, this article provides examples, philosophy,and practical advice for addressing how "quick and dirty forecasts can be long-lasting and beautiful."
~~New Complimentary Article: Forecasts for the US Telecommunications Network~~
Based on our continuing work in the telecom area, this article discusses the variables such as convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, and wireless that are contributing to a probable telecom future.
_______________________________________________Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI:
We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page.
_______________________________________________TFI Keynote & Event Speakers:
Our presenters are highly regarded and available to help your organization see the future more clearly. New subjects are "Seeing the True Future: Stop Living in the Past!" and "Strategic Insights for Dramatic Business Success." The presentation "Telecom Technology Convergence" has been very popular recently with the telecom industry. For more information about TFI presentations and presenters, please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com.
_______________________________________________For 30 years, Technology Futures has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future."
If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries.
~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~
Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com.
_______________________TFI's e-mail list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please e-mail info@tfi.com or call (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898.
Copyright (c) 2008, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved.
All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder.
-- Technology Futures, Inc. --
-- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C --
-- Austin, TX 78750-1859 --
-- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, Fax: 512-258-0087 --
-- info@tfi.com, http://www.tfi.com --
Futures' Features: Mechatronics Paper/Telecom Reports & Paper/More
May 2008
May 2008--Futures' Features is a future-oriented resource for our contacts and clients at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). Please feel free to pass our e-letter on to others.We hope our readers will find one or more of the following items interesting. Thanks to everyone who attended our third annual February seminars/conference series for making it such a success. We will be announcing 2009 datesin the coming weeks.
(1) Paper: Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together
~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems" Now Available~~(2) Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network
~~TFI Telecom Report~~(3) Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment
~~TFI Telecom Report~~(4) Paper: A New Telecommunications World
~~Complimentary TFI Analyst Paper for Telecom and Other Industry Players Influenced by Major Telecom Shifts~~(5) Book Chapter: Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications
~~Article on TFI Forecasting Included in Book and Available to our Readers=======================
(1) Paper: Mechatronics: Getting Your Act Together
~~Complimentary TFI White Paper on "Intelligent Mechanical Systems" Now Available~~Products and systems, such as automobiles, have become increasingly complex, especially as computerized control and software systems have become ubiquitous. Those who design such equipment must have skills that integrate mechanical, electronic, and computerized control and software systems. Written by Henry Elliott (TFI Consultant), John Vanston (TFI Chairman), and James Irwin, this white paper provides recommendations for academic, government, and industry leaders to ensure that U.S. industry fully understands and utilizes this technology to maintain the country's economic competitiveness
A complimentary copy of the report the paper is based on, Mechatronics: A Technology Forecast, is also available to our readers.
For more information on TFI's work on mechatronics and other emerging energy technologies, please contact Henry Elliott at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(2) Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network
~~TFI Telecom Report~~This report documents the changes in TFI's recommended depreciation life for newly-installed fiber optic cable in the local exchange network. TFI's prior recommendation was 15 to 20 years, which reflected the combined impacts of physical mortality, technological substitution, and access line losses due to competition. TFI's new recommendation is 20 to 25 years. This applies to the fiber cable that is going into the massive network upgrades such as AT&T's Project Lightspeed and Verizon's FiOS. The new recommendation recognizes that the ILECs are making these investments with full knowledge that the market is competitive. Also, there is no obvious technological replacement for the full-spectrum fiber the ILECs are now placing.
Written by Larry Vanston (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For additional information and purchasing details, please see Depreciation Lives for New Fiber Optic Cable in the Local Exchange Network.
For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(3) Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment
~~TFI Telecom Report~~Incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) still mostly use traditional circuit switching equipment for voice services. This represents a tremendous sunk investment: $62.5 billion in digital circuit switching at year-end 2006. Newer competitors are using VoIP (voice over Internet protocol) switching, which is significantly less expensive and much more flexible, especially in offering integrated applications. This study examines the main options available to ILECs regarding the future of their circuit switches and provides recommendations for depreciation lives.
Written by Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant) and Larry Vanston (TFI President), the research was sponsored by the Telecommunication Technology Forecasting Group, a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, Qwest, and Verizon. For additional information and purchasing details, please see Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment.
For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(4) Paper: A New Telecommunications World
~~Complimentary TFI Analyst Paper for Telecom and Other Industry Players Influenced by Major Telecom Shifts~~The telephone network was built to provide narrowband voice service to essentially every home and office. That world is disappearing. The reasons are many including convergence, competition, broadband, increasing data rates, wireless, and others. This complimentary paper by Larry Vanston (TFI President) covers these and gives forecasts of the probable telecom future.
For more information on TFI's work in the telecom area, please see Telecom Services or contact Larry Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________(5) Book Chapter: Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications
~~Article on TFI Forecasting Included in Book and Available to our ReadersAn article by Larry Vanston (TFI President) and Ray Hodges (TFI Senior Consultant), Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications, which appeared in the prestigious international telecommunications journal Telektronikk, is included as a chapter in the new book, Technology Management: Concepts and Applications.
For thirty years Technology Futures has been actively applying formal technology forecasting to the telecommunications industry and many other industries. Anyone whose future depends on technology markets will find technology forecasting extraordinarily useful both in gaining insight and understanding, as well as in decision making. This article reviews a number of past and current forecasts to give an idea about TFI's experience with technology forecasting and what we see for the future.
For more information on TFI's work in the forecasting area, please see the TFI Website or contact us at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com.
_______________________________________________Technology and Telecom Reports and White Papers Available at TFI:
We provide several technology forecasting guides and technology and telecom reports, as well as white papers and other publications. For more information, please visit our Publications Page.
_______________________________________________TFI Keynote & Event Speakers:
Our presenters are highly regarded and available to help your organization see the future more clearly. New subjects are "Seeing the True Future: Stop Living in the Past!" and "Strategic Insights for Dramatic Business Success." The presentation "Telecom Technology Convergence" has been very popular recently with the telecom industry. For more information about TFI presentations and presenters, please visit our Speakers Page or contact Carrie Vanston at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or cvanston@tfi.com.
_______________________________________________For 30 years, Technology Futures has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist to be "Your Bridge to the Future."
If you believe you can benefit from sound, credible projections of the future that reflect reality and imagination, please contact us by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or by e-mail at info@tfi.com. We welcome your inquiries.
~~TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TFI ~~
Please visit our website at http://www.tfi.com.
_______________________TFI's e-mail list is comprised of customers and contacts who have expressed interest in our company. Please feel free to pass this e-letter on to any colleagues who would like to have a better understanding of the future before it arrives. We welcome new subscribers--please return with "subscribe." We respect your online privacy. If you would like to be removed from this list, please e-mail info@tfi.com or call (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898.
Copyright (c) 2008, Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved.
All product names contained herein are the trademarks of holder.
-- Technology Futures, Inc. --
-- 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C --
-- Austin, TX 78750-1859 --
-- Tel: (800) TEK-FUTR or (512) 258-8898, Fax: 512-258-0087 --
-- info@tfi.com, http://www.tfi.com --