Publications Overview | Technology & Telecom Reports | Technology Forecasting Guides | Futures' Features | Future Impacts | White Papers, Articles, & Complimentary Reports  | Communications Reference Book | Archive [ordering online? -- please see our return/refund policy] Forecasts for Higher Bandwidth Broadband Services Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., Ray L. Hodges, and Joseph Savage Description Key findings Who should be interested in this report? Table of contents List of exhibits and featured graphs Pricing/Ordering information Sponsored by TTFG Description  [back to top] This report forecasts the increase in broadband data rates and discusses the applications, especially IP Video, driving the increase. It also covers the current leaders --South Korea, Japan, and Italy. By 2006, U.S. broadband penetration will likely reach 50% and a shift to data rates of 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s will have begun. By 2010, 75% broadband penetration is likely, with 10% to 20% of households subscribing to very high-speed-broadband. Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top] Broadband will eventually be adopted by most households as websites become increasingly designed for broadband, e-mail attachments (e.g., photo collections) grow large, and new services such as VoIP become widely adopted. U.S. residential broadband will soon demand higher data rates than currently provided, probably in the range of 6-10 Mb/s, which is already available in leading broadband countries. Bandwidth increases reflect the general tendency for demand to increase along with computing power and memory. They will also reflect the demand for specific services such as IP video that require more bandwidth. TFI forecasts IP video penetration of 40% in 2010, with high definition IP video penetration of 20%. In the 2006 timeframe, a shift to much higher data rates in the range of 24 Mb/s to 100 Mb/s is likely to begin. So far, only a few places have access at these rates, notably Japan. Leading broadband countries are a full generation ahead of North America. Japan and Korea are already rolling out the subsequent generation of services operating at 20 Mb/s and above, and have plans to complete the transition by 2010. There are factors that favored early broadband adoption and rapid broadband progress in the leading countries. However, there is nothing unique about these countries in their need for broadband and faster rates and nothing that indefinitely precludes North America from having it available. The results confirm TFI's scenarios for the placement of fiber optics deep into ILEC networks, extending to the home via BPONs, or very close to the home via VDSL technology. In the process, much of ILEC current investment in metallic cable will be made obsolete. Who should be interested in this report?  [back to top] Incumbent local exchange carriers Competitive LECs Interexchange carriers Internet service providers Telecom equipment manufacturers Regulatory personnel Depreciation professionals Table of Contents  [back to top] Chapter 1. Introduction and Summary Status and Forecast for Broadband Access Drivers for Higher Bandwidth Forecast of Households with Very-High-Speed Broadband Access Network Evolution to Support Very-High-Speed Broadband Chapter 2. Forecasts for Broadband Video Digital TV and High-Definition TV IP Video Chapter 3. Broadband Applications in Precursor Countries Other Factors in Japan and Korean Broadband Leadership Chapter 4. Forecasts of Bandwidth Requirements Bandwidth Requirements for Video Overall Bandwidth Requirements Comparison of IP Video and Broadband Bandwidth Requirements Chapter 5. The Deployment of Very-High-Speed Broadband Options for the Deployment of Very-High-Speed Broadband Deployment of Very-High-Speed Broadband in Korea Deployment of Very-High-Speed Broadband in Japan Network Evolution in North America List of Exhibits with Featured Graphs  [back to top] 1.1 Forecast Broadband Households, Percentage of Households 1.2 Adoption of Various Consumer Communications Products and Services 1.3 Broadband Households in the United States and South Korea 1.4 Forecast of HDTV Households 1.5 Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate, Percentage of Households --Featured Graph 1.6 Trend in Residential Access Data Rates 1.7 Forecast Adoption of Standard and Very-High-Speed Broadband, Percentage of Households 1.8 Comparison of IP Video and 6 Mb/s Broadband Bandwidth Forecasts 1.9 Comparison of High Definition IP Video and 24 Mb/s Broadband Bandwidth Forecasts 1.10 Broadband Minimum Availability 24 Mb/s & Above 1.11 Distribution Fiber Scenarios 1.12 Comparison of the Early Distribution Fiber Scenario and the Required Availability of Very-High-Speed Broadband 1.13 Comparison of the Middle Distribution Fiber Scenario and the Required Availability of Very-High-Speed Broadband 1.14 Comparison of the Late Distribution Fiber Scenario and the Required Availability of Very-High-Speed Broadband 2.1 Subscribers to Direct Broadcast Satellite and Other Digital Competitors 2.2 Subscribers to Cable Telephony, including VoIP 2.3 Subscribers to Digital Cable 2.4 On Demand Television vs. Broadcast Television 2.5 Growth in HDTV Programming Availability in The U. S. 2.6 HDTV Installedled Base in the U.S. 2.7 Forecast of HDTV Households 2.8 Provisional Forecast of U.S. Households using IP Video 2.9 Provisional Forecast of U.S. Households Using High-Definition IP Video --Featured Graph 3.1 Effective Broadband Access Costs with Equalized Purchasing Power 4.1 Comparison of IP Video and 6 Mb/s Broadband Bandwidth Forecast 4.2 Comparison of Households with Both HDTV and Broadband and 6 Mb/s Bandwidth Forecasts 4.3 Comparison of High Definition IP Video and 24 Mb/s Bandwidth Forecasts 5.1 Alternative Passive Optical Networks Technologies 5.2 Speed of Broadband Access National Targets 5.3 Added Subscribers by Broadband Access Type in Japan 5.4 Broadband Minimum Availability 24 Mb/s & Above 5.5 Distribution Fiber Scenarios 5.6 Comparison of the Early Distribution Fiber Scenario and the Required Availability of Very-High-Speed Broadband 5.7 Comparison of the Middle Distribution Fiber Scenario and the Required Availability of Very-High-Speed Broadband 5.8 Comparison of the Late Distribution Fiber Scenario and the Required Availability of Very-High-Speed Broadband Pricing Information  [back to top] December 2004, 47 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN ISBN 1-884154-22-0 US $495 Electronic Delivery US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Texas residents add 7.25% (Austin, Texas 8.25%) sales tax. 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