Publications Overview | Telecom Reports | Technology Forecasting Guides | Futures' Features | Future Impacts | White Papers, Articles, & Complimentary Reports  | Communications Reference Book | Archive [ordering online? -- please see our return/refund policy] Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Circuit Equipment Ray L. Hodges Description Key findings Who should read this report? Table of contents Exhibits Pricing/Ordering information Sponsored by TTFG Description  [back to top] This report provides an update and comparison to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, and describes and quantifies the impact of new technologies such as xDSL and dense wave division multiplexing. Circuit equipment investment is growing over 10% per year, while telephone plant in service is growing less than 5% since more functionality is being booked to the circuit category. This report forecasts the transitions and quantifies the rate of obsolescence of the significant and growing embedded investment in circuit equipment. Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top] Circuit equipment in service as of 1/1/2001 comprises 23% of the ILECs' $355 billion plant investment and has an average remaining life of 3.2 years. The range of remaining lives for categories of equipment within the account range from 3.0 years for pre-SONET digital equipment (over 60% of the circuit investment) to 7.7 years for ADSL (currently less than 2% of circuit investment). However, the life for some of the early product lines of ADSL may be much shorter. SONET equipment currently represents over 25% of the circuit account investment. However, the vast majority is at the OC-48 level or below and will continuously be made obsolete by higher SONET levels and/or DWDM. The ARL for this category is 3.4 years. Who should read this report?  [back to top] Local exchange carriers Competitive LECs Interexchange carriers Internet service providers Telecom equipment manufacturers Regulatory personnel Depreciation professionals Table of Contents  [back to top] Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 Circuit Overview Chapter 3 Analog to Digital Chapter 4 SONET for Pre-SONET Comparison to Previous Forecasts Remaining Lives for Pre-SONET Equipment Chapter 5 VDSL & FITL for DSL Chapter 6 Advanced Optical Networks Impact of Advanced Optical Networks Chapter 7 Investment Mapping & Life Calculations Investment Mapping Life Calculations Chapter 8 Survey Description & Results Part 1—Loop Circuit Equipment Part 2—Interoffice Transmission Part 3—Interoffice Bandwidth Management (Crossconnect & Multiplexing) Part 4—Outside Plant Modernization Plans Part 5—ATM/Packet Expert Survey Current Investment Breakout Chapter 9 Summary & Conclusions Appendix A Circuit Equipment Analog Test and Miscellaneous Digital Test Metallic and Pre-SONET Fiber DLC SONET Fiber DLC Transport T-Carrier Optical Transport (Pre-SONET) Optical Transport (SONET) WDM and DWDM Packet Type Transport (Non-Switching) Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line Other and Analog Miscellaneous List of Exhibits  [back to top] 3.1 Analog Circuit Survivors 3.2 Tabular Data 4.1 Interoffice SONET 4.2 Interoffice SONET Equipment–Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity 4.3 Loop SONET 4.4 Loop SONET Equipment–Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity 4.5 Adoption of SONET Equipment Summary–Percentage of Equipment on SONET 4.6 Comparison to 1994 & 1997 SONET Forecast 4.7 Comparison of SONET Adoption to the 1994 Forecast 4.8 Pre-SONET Survivors 4.9 Pre-SONET Circuit Equipment Survivors 5.1 Households Using Digital Services–Minimum Competitive Data Rates 5.2 ADSL Survivors 5.3 Tabular Data 5.4 xDSL Households–Middle Scenario 6.1 Transition to IP/DWDM 6.2 ATM, SONET & WDM Survivors 6.3 Tabular Data 7.1 Investment Mapping Summary 7.2 Composite Survivor Curve–Tabular Data 7.3 Composite Survivor Curve for Circuit Equipment Pricing Information  [back to top] October 2001, 67 pages, ISBN 1-884154-17-4 Sponsored by the TTFG US $495 Electronic Delivery US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $495 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Texas residents add 7.25% (Austin, Texas 8.25%) sales tax. All orders are shipped via UPS ground. Call for TTFG member prices and volume discounts. Copyright © Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C Austin, TX 78750-1859 Toll Free: (800) TEK-FUTR - Local & Outside USA: (512) 258-8898 FAX: (512) 258-0087 - e-mail: info@tfi.com - http://www.tfi.com