Publications Overview | Telecom Reports | Technology Forecasting Guides | Futures' Features | Future Impacts | White Papers, Articles, & Complimentary Reports  | Communications Reference Book | Archive [ordering online? -- please see our return/refund policy] Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Analyses and Forecasts of Technology Change Second Edition Lawrence K. Vanston, Ray L. Hodges, & Adrian J. Poitras Description Who should read in this report? Table of contents Exhibits Pricing/Ordering information Description  [back to top] This new report from Technology Futures provides tremendous insight into expectations for the future of current network assets -- cable, circuit, and switching -- in North America. Capital is a dominant factor in the telecommunications industry. Total investment (plant in service) by the major U.S. local exchange carriers was $268 billion at the end of 1995. The bulk of this investment is in three general categories: the outside plant, switching, and circuit equipment. In each of these categories, tremendous changes are underway which are displacing the bulk of existing investment and making large amounts of new investment necessary. Changes are not only being driven by advances in telecommunications technology, but also by the need for new communications services and the emergence of competition in the local exchange. These three drivers -- technology, new services, and competition -- reinforce each other and together increase the pace, magnitude, and importance of the adoption of new technology. This comprehensive report: Provides forecasts based on technological advancements and increasingly complex service demands. Gives a view of the industry trends for the next 10 years and longer. Documents the competition between the various technologies. Gives readers the knowledge they need to evaluate their particular circumstances and to develop a winning strategy for the markets of the future. Includes TFI's latest recommendations for telecommunications equipment depreciation lives which are regularly used. Who should read this report?  [back to top] Local Exchange Carriers Competitive LECs CATV Operators Internet Service Providers Fiber Optics Manufacturers Interexchange Carriers ATM Manufacturers Network Suppliers Component Suppliers Table of Contents  [back to top] Chapter One: Introduction and Summary Technology Change in the Local Telecom Infrastructure Industry Focus Methodology Data Sources The Home Market Summary of Technology Forecasts Estimating Equipment Depreciation Lives Report Organization Chapter Two: Drivers for Change Telecommunications Act of 1996 Convergence and Competition in the Local Exchange Internet Implications for LECs Technology Drivers Services Drivers The Mass Market for Digital Services Drivers for Increased Bandwidth Usage by Businesses Chapter Three: Forecasts for Fiber Adoption in the Outside Plant Outside Plant Basics The Adoption of Fiber Optics in the Interoffice Outside Plant The Adoption of Fiber Optics in the Feeder Plant The Adoption of Fiber Optics in the Distribution Plant The Home Market Small Business Location Services Medium Business Location Services Large Business Location Services Combining the Home and Business Fiber Forecasts Remaining Lives for Existing Outside Plant Facilities Chapter Four: SONET Circuit Equipment Benefits of SONET Forecasts for SONET Adoption Comparison to Previous Forecast Remaining Lives for Non-SONET Equipment Chapter Five: Forecasts for Digital Switching and ATM The Replacement of Old Technologies by Digital Switching Forecasts for the Adoption of Digital Switching Comparisons to Previous Forecasts Remaining Life for ASPC Forecasts of Modular Upgrades to Digital Switches Categories of Switch Modules Distribution of Investment Historical Evolution of Switch Modules The Future Evolution of Existing Digital Switch Architectures Composite Lives for Digital Switches Forecast of Processor/Memory Upgrades Forecast of Switch Fabric Upgrades Forecast of Trunk Interface Upgrades Forecast of DLC Interface Upgrades Forecast of Baseband Line Interface Upgrades The Adoption of ATM Switching Forecast for ATM Switching Adoption ATM Implementation Alternatives Summary Appendix A Individual Study Area Table B Data List of Exhibits  [back to top] 1.1 The Fisher-Pry Model 1.2 Interoffice Technology Shares 1.3 Feeder Technologies -- Percentage of Access Lines 1.4 Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations 1.5 Households Using Digital Services 1.6 Home Digital Availability and Subscribers -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above 1.7 Households Using Digital Services -- Minimum Competitive Data Rates 1.8 Adoption of Interoffice SONET Equipment 1.9 Adoption of Loop SONET Equipment 1.10 Switching Technology Shares 1.11 Generic Switching Architecture 1.12 Digital Switching -- Modular Retirement Analysis 1.13 ATM Switching -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 1.14A Early Scenario -- ATM Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 1.14B Late Scenario (Direct Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 1.14C Late Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 1.15 Avalanche Curves 1.16 TFI 1997 Recommendations for Equipment Lives 2.1 Points of Interconnection and Unbundled Elements 2.2 Primary Integrated Carriers in the U.S. Telecommunications Market 3.1 Local Exchange Network Architecture 3.2 Maximum Transmission Rates for Commercial Fiber Systems 3.3 Interoffice Technology Shares 3.4 Interoffice Technology Shares -- Percentage of Total Circuits 3.5 Multiple Substitution Analysis of Interoffice Technologies 3.6 Metallic Feeder Architectures 3.7 Fiber Feeder Architectures 3.8 Feeder Technologies -- Percentage of Access Lines 3.9 Feeder Technology Shares -- Percentage of Access Lines 3.10 Multiple Substitution Analysis of Feeder Technologies 3.11 Fiber in the Loop Architectures 3.12 Fiber/Coax Architectures 3.13 Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations 3.14 Millions of Home and Business Locations and Access Lines (1995) 3.15 Households Using PCs, Multimedia PCs, and On-line/Internet Services 3.16 Households Using Digital Services 3.17 Home Digital Availability and Subscribers -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above 3.18 Households Using Digital Services -- Minimum Competitive Data Rates 3.19 Home Digital Services -- Average Data Rate 3.20 Home Digital Service Availability on Fiber 3.21 xDSL Households -- Middle Scenario 3.22 xDSL Households -- Late Scenario 3.23 Digital Subscribers -- Small Business Locations 3.24 Digital Services Availability (1.5 Mb/s & Above) -- Small Business Locations 3.25 Digital Service Availability -- Small Business Locations 3.26 Digital Subscribers -- Medium Business Locations 3.27 Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations 3.28 Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Access Lines 3.29 Comparison to 1994 Interoffice Fiber Forecast 3.30 Comparison to 1994 Fiber Feeder Forecast 3.31 Comparison to 1994 FITL Scenarios 3.32 Interoffice Copper Cable Survivors 3.33 Interoffice Copper Cable Survivors 3.34 Metallic Feeder Survivors 3.35 Metallic Feeder Survivors 3.36 Survivor Curves for Copper Cable -- All Households & Business Locations 3.37 Distribution Copper Survivors, All Households and Business Locations -- 1997 Network Study 3.38 Survivor Curves for Copper Cable -- All Households & Business Access Lines 3.39 Distribution Copper Survivors, All Households and Business Access Lines -- 1997 Network Study 4.1 Adoption of Interoffice SONET Equipment 4.2 Interoffice SONET Equipment -- Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity 4.3 Adoption of Loop SONET Equipment 4.4 Loop SONET Equipment -- Percentage of Fiber Transmission Capacity 4.5 Adoption of SONET Equipment Summary Percentage of Equipment on SONET 4.6 Adoption of SONET Equipment -- Percentage of All Access Lines (ALs) Terminated on SONET Equipment 4.7 Forecast of SONET Penetration into the Network with Likely Dates of Key Events -- 1989 Forecast 4.8 Comparison to 1994 SONET Forecast -- Interoffice & Loop Combined 4.9 Comparison of SONET Adoption to 1994 Forecast 4.10 Non-SONET Circuit Equipment Survivors 4.11 Non-SONET Circuit Equipment Survivors 5.1 Switching Technology Shares 5.2 Switching Technology Shares -- Percentage of Access Lines 5.3 Multiple Substitution Analysis of Switching Technologies 5.4 Comparison to 1989 and 1994 SPC Switching Forecasts 5.5 Comparison to 1989 and 1994 Digital Switching Forecast 5.6 Analog SPC Survivors 5.7 Analog SPC Survivors 5.8 Generic Switching Architecture 5.9 Nortel DMS-100 Architecture 5.10 Lucent 5ESS Architecture 5.11 Digital Switching Investment Distribution -- Results from Various Studies 5.12 Evolution of Nortel DMS-100 5.13 Evolution of the Lucent 5ESS 5.14 Nortel S/DMS SuperNode Architecture 5.15 Lucent 5ESS -- 2000 Architecture 5.16 Digital Switching -- Modular Retirement Analysis 5.17 Percentage Survivor Curves for Modular Categories of Digital Switching 5.18 Composite Survivor Curve for Digital Switching 5.19 Survivor Curves for Digital Switch Modules 5.20 Survivor Curves for Processor/Memory Units 5.21 Vintage Composite Lives 5.22 Actual Versus Model Technology Life Cycle Curves for Processor/Memory Units 5.23 Baseband Digital Switch Terminations -- Percentage of Access Lines 5.24 Baseband Digital Switch Terminations -- Digital and Analog Percentage of Access Lines 5.25 Adoption of ATM Switching -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.26 ATM Switching -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.27A Early Scenario -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 5.27B Late Scenario (Direct Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 5.27C Late Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) -- ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative 5.28A Early Scenario Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.28B Late Scenario (Direct Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.28C Late Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves -- Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines 5.29 ATM Implementation Projections -- Percentage of ATM Equivalent Access Lines 5.30 Switching Technology Shares -- Late ATM Scenarios A.1 The Fisher-Pry Model A.2 Linearized Fisher-Pry Model A.3 Market Share of the Old Technology A.4 Projecting the Number of Units A.5 Fisher-Pry and Life Cycles A.6 Computing the Survivor Curve A.7 Estimating the Average Remaining Life from the Old Technology Market Share B.1 Typical Effect of Newest Technology on Previous Substitution Typical Effect on Current Substitution of Old Technology 1 Being Displaced Faster than Old Technology 2 Typical Pattern of Two Generations of New Technologies Substituting for Two Generations of Old Technologies B.2 Illustration of a Substitution Universe B.3 Illustration of Substitution Universes for Multiple Substitutions B.4 Illustration of Substitution Universes for Multiple Substitutions with a Transition Period C.1 Multiple Substitution Analysis for Interoffice Technologies C.2 Multiple Substitution Analysis -- Interoffice Fiber C.3 Interoffice Technologies -- Fisher-Pry Plots C.4 Interoffice Fiber in the Baseband Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Circuits C.5 Interoffice Fiber in the Baseband Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression C.6 Interoffice Fiber in the Digital CXR (Metallic) Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Circuits C.7 Interoffice Fiber in the Digital CXR (Metallic) Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression C.8 Interoffice Fiber in the Analog CXR Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Circuits C.9 Interoffice Fiber in Analog CXR Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression D.1 Multiple Substitution Analysis of Feeder Technologies D.2 Multiple Substitution Analysis -- Feeder Percentage of Access Lines D.3 Feeder Fiber Carrier in the Baseband Substitution Universe D.4 Feeder Fiber in Baseband Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines D.5 Feeder Fiber in the Baseband Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines E.1 Part 1. Home Digital Services Forecasts -- All Digital Services E.1 Part 2. Home Digital Services Forecasts -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above E.1 Part 3. Home Digital Services Forecasts -- 6 Mb/s, 24 Mb/s, and 100 Mb/s & Above E.2 Home Digital Subscribers by Data Rate -- Summary E.3 Required Availability to Serve Home Digital Subscribers -- Summary E.4 Home Digital Subscribers -- Average Data Rate E.5 Home Digital Service Availability on Fiber E.6 Home Digital Required Availability -- All Scenarios E.7 Transition Parameters for Computing Middle Scenario -- Home Fiber E.8 Home Digital Availability on Fiber -- Early Scenario E.9 Home Digital Availability on Fiber -- Middle Scenario E.10 Home Digital Availability on Fiber -- Late Scenario E.11 Home Digital Required Availability on xDSL -- Early Scenario E.12 Home Digital Required Availability on xDSL -- Middle Scenario E.13 Home Digital Required Availability on xDSL -- Late Scenario E.14 Part 1. Digital Services Forecasts, Small Business Locations -- Summary E.14 Part 2. Digital Services Forecasts, Small Business Locations -- All Digital Services E.14 Part 3. Digital Services Forecasts, Small Business Locations -- 1.5 Mb/s & Above E.15 ISDN Subscribers -- Percentage of Small Business Locations E.16 ISDN Availability -- Percentage of Access Lines E.17 Required Availability of Digital Services to Small Business Locations -- Summary E.18 Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- Small Business Locations E.19 Transition Parameters for Computing the Middle Scenario -- Small Business Fiber E.20 Digital Services Forecasts -- Medium Business Locations Served by Fiber E.21 Medium Business Locations Served by Distribution Fiber E.22 Fiber to Large Business Locations E.23 Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations Weighted by Number of Locations E.24 Digital Service Availability on Fiber -- All Households & Business Locations Weighted by Number of Access Lines F.1 Multiple Substitution Analysis of Switching Technologies F.2 Multiple Substitution Analysis -- Switching F.3 Digital Switching -- Fisher-Pry Plots F.4 Digital Switching in the Analog SPC Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines F.5 Digital Switching in the Analog SPC Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression F.6 Digital Switching in the Electromechanical Substitution Universe -- Percentage of Access Lines F.7 Digital Switching in the Electromechanical Substitution Universe -- Historical and Regression Pricing Information  [back to top] July 1997, 200 pages, Softcover, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-08-5 US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada Texas residents add 7.25% (Austin, Texas 8.25%) sales tax. 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