Seminars Overview Quantitative Technology/Market Forecasting Forecasting & Planning Technology Strategic Roadmapping Forecasting, Planning & Managing Technology Managing & Implemenging Technology Technology Forecasting for the Telecom Industry Telecom Trends: Markets & Technologies Other TFI In-House Seminars [PDF (printable version) of a sample Quantitative Technology/Market Forecasting™ agenda] Quantitative Technology/Market Forecasting™ This two-day, applications-based, workshop teaches hands-on techniques for making quantitative technology/marketing forecasts using computer programs. Table of Contents Workshop Characteristics What You Will Gain Who Should Attend Course Topics The Company We Keep What Past Participants Say Course Leaders Questions and to Reserve Dates back to the top Workshop Characteristics Stresses the use of computers and specially-tailored software in the development of quantitative technology/market forecasts Follows a logical forecasting path from trend identification to the development of alternate scenarios Emphasizes the practical application of a wide range of forecasting techniques Gives special attention to implications of technology/market forecasts Features extensive practical work in small groups Is designed as a follow-on and extension of other TFI forecasting workshops back to the top What You Will Gain Hands-on training in developing quantitative technology/market forecasts using computer technologies A toolbox of quantitative forecasting techniques A series of Excel® add-ins specially developed for quantitative forecasting An understanding of the calculations behind spreadsheet results Assistance in developing forecasts for your organization Interaction with like-minded professionals >> BONUS << All participants receive copies of our presentation notes and technology forecasting guides: Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting PLEASE NOTE Participants are expected to bring a laptop computer with Windows® 95 and Excel® 95 or 97 installed. It is recommended that the laptop utilize a Pentium® 120+ processor with at least 16 MB of memory. If necessary, we will assist participants in renting laptops from local suppliers. Participants are strongly urged to bring nonproprietary data for use in workshop exercises. These exercises are designed so that their results can be used in the development of in-house quantitative forecasts. Organizations are encouraged to enroll a small group of people for the workshop so that they can work together to develop useful forecasts. We offer special discounts for multiple registrants. Windows and Excel are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation. Pentium is a registered trademark of Intel Corporation. back to the top Who Should Attend Managers and professional staff members in technology and/or market functions who: Are responsible for developing objective, quantitative technology/market forecasts Are charged with integrating these forecasts into technology and business plans Must be able to intelligently discuss the implications of these forecasts and plans to other groups in their organization, such as R&D, manufacturing, marketing, finance, and human resources back to the top Course Topics An Overview of Quantitative Technology/Market Forecasting (QT/MF) Principles and Techniques An overview of technology/market forecasting principles and techniques The power of quantitative forecasts Goals of QT/MF workshop Determining what to forecast Mathematical Models and Linear Transforms Extrapolation of unlimited trends Using linear regression to improve curve fitting Effective Use of Computers in Forecasting The special role of computers in QT/MF (disorganizing your computer for effective forecasting) Overview of several useful Excel features Loading of tf.Innovate Practical Application of Mathematical Modeling Techniques A structured exercise using trend extrapolation and linear regression techniques The Use of Limited Growth Models in Technology/ Market Forecasting Using exponential with limits, Pearl-Reed, and Gompertz curves to project trends with defined limits Strengths and weaknesses of each trend extrapolation technique Lead-Lag Relationships and Envelope Curves The use of quantitative lead-lag relationships in technology/market forecasting Precursor patterns: What to look for Formulating and employing envelope curves Structured Exercise in the Application of Limited Growth Models Practice in the "real world" application of trend extrapolation techniques Basic Substitution Models Projecting technology takeover using logistic curve analysis Projecting market takeover in a consumer market Multiple Substitution How to project technology takeover when multiple, simultaneous substitutions are taking place Factors that can impact the rate of market takeover Practical Application of Substitution Analysis How the results of substitution analysis can be used in business planning and management. The Application of Quantitative Forecasts in Real Business Situations How the results of a quantitative forecast can be used in making business decisions such as economic life assessment, asset evaluation, and purchase volumes Examples of "real world" use of quantitative forecasts from past projects Final Thoughts on Quantitative Technology/Market Forecasting How to evaluate your own and other people's forecasts Reality checks for quantitative forecasts This schedule may be tailored to your individual needs. back to the top The Company We Keep These are some of the companies whose managers and professionals have benefited from attending Technology Futures, Inc. public and in-house workshops: Alcatel AMD AT&T Wireless Bell Canada Bell Northern Research BellSouth Chevron Deere & Co. Deloitte & Touche Deautsche Telekom Dow Eastman Chemical Eastman Kodak Ernst & Young Fisher-Rosemount General Electric General Motors Hughes IBM MCI Mobil Motorola Nokia Nortel Quest Raytheon Rockwell Rosemount SBC Siecor Sprint 3M Telcordia Telefonica Teleglobe Canada Telstra TELUS Verizon VTEL back to the top What Past Participants Say These are some of the comments of managers and professionals who have attended Technology Futures, Inc. public and in-house workshops: "This course is excellent in showing the complexities of the industry in simple terms. It is critical that more people are exposed to such analyses in order to better understand the increasingly competative telecom industry. I especially appreciated the speakers' ability to make comparisons in technology development in other industries." Dora Mozes Senior Advisor, Business Analysis Industry Canada "Valuable workshop! High potential value! Directly applicable to analyses for understanding the relationship between technology and potential opportunities for our company." Mike Ubaldini Information Associate-Emerging Technology Eastman Chemical Co. "The seminar packs a lot of data into a straightforward presentation." Bob Brown Member, Technical Staff U S WEST Advanced Technologies "The information received has allowed me to look at new directions our area may go in the future. New services and products will be coming at such a pace that the challenge will be to come up with a short/long-term forecast that will allow us to make correct decisions in the way our company wants to evolve." John Gyrylux Network Forecast Analyst TELUS Communications "Very good! Covered the essential technology forecasting techniques and approaches in a logical sequence. Provided me with a strong technical validation that I could present to management." Bernadette Zapiec Business Research Manager Rohm & Haas "Depth and breadth of presenters' experience is evident and significantly enhances the value of the seminar. Both process and content work well." Mary Anne Overman Manager Department of Defense back to the top Course Leaders Each two and three day in-house seminar is led by two of the following TFI Senior Staff members. John H. Vanston, Ph.D., Chairman, Technology Futures, Inc. Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., President, Technology Futures, Inc. Ray L. Hodges, Senior Consultant, Technology Futures, Inc. back to the top Questions and to Reserve Dates Please contact TFI at (800) 835-3887, (512) 258-8898, or info@tfi.com with questions and to reserve dates. Copyright © Technology Futures, Inc. All rights reserved. 13740 Research Blvd., Bldg. C Austin, TX 78750-1859 Toll Free: (800) TEK-FUTR - Local & Outside USA: (512) 258-8898 FAX: (512) 258-0087 - e-mail: info@tfi.com - http://www.tfi.com