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Technology Forecasts for Local Exchange Switching Equipment Ray L. Hodges & Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. Description Key findings Who should read this report? Table of contents Exhibits Pricing/Ordering information

Description  [back to top]

This report addresses issues related to the current trend of ATM/IP packet switching and its impact on the embedded digital circuit switches of incumbent LECs. The report also includes a technology description and assessment of optical switching. It provides an update and comparisons to earlier forecasts conducted by Technology Futures, Inc. in 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1997, which were remarkably accurate in identifying the technology substitutions and predicting the pace of change.

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

• By 2010, the LECs will have converted 90% of the switch capacity to ATM.
• The average remaining life for digital switching investment is 4.9 years, while the previous study estimated 6.3 years. The change is primarily due to the passage of time rather than a change of assumptions or actual data being different from that forecast.
• ILECs must move toward a packet network in order to accommodate the explosive growth in data traffic. Voice traffic is growing at 10% per year or less, while data traffic is conservatively estimated to be growing at 125% per year. This means that voice traffic will be less than 1% of the total traffic by 2007.

Who should read this report?  [back to top]

• Local exchange carriers
• Competitive LECs
• Interexchange carriers
• Internet service providers
• Telecom equipment manufacturers

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter One

Introduction

Chapter Two

Switching Technology

• ATM and IP Switching

Chapter Three

LEC Transition Strategies

• Transition Alternatives

Chapter Four

Forecasts for Digital Switching and ATM/IP

• The Evolution of Circuit Switching
• Forecasts for the Adoption of Digital Switching
• Comparisons to Previous Forecasts
• Forecasts of Modular Upgrades to Digital Switches
• Categories of Switch Modules
• Distribution of Investment
• Historical Evolution of Switch Modules
• Recent Updates to Existing Digital Switch Architectures
• Composite Lives for Digital Switches
• Forecast of Processor/Memory Upgrades
• Forecast of Switch Fabric Upgrades
• Forecast of Trunk Interface Upgrades
• Forecast of DLC Interface Upgrades
• Forecast of Baseband Line Interface Upgrades

Chapter Five

The Adoption of Packet Switching

• Forecast for ATM/IP Switching Adoption
• ATM Implementation Alternatives
• Summary

Appendix A

Substitution Analysis and the Fisher-Pry Model

• Forecasting with Fisher-Pry
• Extensions of Fisher-Pry
• Projecting the Market Share of the Old Technology
• Projecting the Number of Units
• Relationship to Product Life Cycles
• Forecasting Depreciation Lives
• Company Forecasts

Appendix B

Forecasting with Multiple Substitution

Appendix C

Multiple Substitution Analysis for Digital Switching

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

2.1	Growth in Data Traffic
3.1	5ESS Evolves with 7R/E Packet Driver
3.2	Nortel's View of the ATM/IP Future
3.3	Lucent's View of the ATM/IP Future
4.1	Switching Technology Shares
4.2	Switching Technology Shares--Percentage of Access Lines
4.3	Multiple Substitution Analysis of Switching Technologies
4.4	Comparison to 1989, 1994, and 1997 SPC Switching Forecasts
4.5	Comparison to 1989, 1994, 1997, and 2000 Digital Switching Forecasts
4.6	Generic Switching Architecture
4.7	Nortel DMS-100 Architecture
4.8	Lucent 5ESS Architecture
4.9	Digital Switching Investment Distribution--Results from Various Studies
4.10	Evolution of Nortel DMS-100
4.11	Evolution of the Lucent 5ESS
4.12	Nortel S/DMS SuperNode Architecture
4.13	Lucent 5ESS-2000 Architecture
4.14	Digital Switching--Modular Retirement Analysis
4.15	Percentage Survivor Curves for Modular Categories of Digital Switching
4.16	Composite Survivor Curve for Digital Switching
4.17	Survivor Curves for Digital Switch Modules
4.18	Baseband Digital Switch Terminations--Percentage of Access Lines
4.19	Baseband Digital Switch Terminations--Digital and Analog Percentage of Access Lines
5.1	Adoption of ATM Switching--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.2	ATM Switching--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.3A	Early Scenario--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.3B	Late Scenario (Direct Transition)--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.3C	Late Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition)--ATM Equivalent Access Lines by Implementation Alternative
5.4A	Early Scenario Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.4B	Late Scenario (Direct Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.4C	Late Scenario (Primary Fabric Transition) Non-ATM Switching Survivor Curves--Percentage of Equivalent Access Lines
5.5	ATM Implementation Projections--Percentage of ATM Equivalent Access Lines
5.6	Switching Technology Shares--Late ATM Scenarios

Pricing Information  [back to top]

March 2000, 84 pages, Sponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-14-X

US $95 Electronic Delivery

US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery

US $95 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

Texas residents add 7.25% (Austin, Texas 8.25%) sales tax.
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