Energizing the Future Conference
Presented by INFORMS
November 7, 2010
Forecasting New Technologies in Telecommunications: Past Experience and Future Directions
Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., President, Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI)
Forecasting new technologies requires judgment, knowledge and modeling skills in a world where success is relative and delayed. For 25 years, telecom has provided a rich forecasting environment with seismic transitions in broadband, wireless, fiber optics, the Internet, etc. The future is as promising. In this presentation I draw lessons from past forecasts, provide ideas about the future and explain how modeling skills from operations research apply to the fuzzy world of forecasting the future.
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