Technology Futures Inc.

Wireless High-Speed Data to Climb into the Ring Soon

Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., President
Technology Futures, Inc.
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The fanfare over xDSL and cable modems has made it easy to overlook a new contender for high-speed data access-wireless. Yet, over the next several years, at least half-a-dozen wireless contenders--both terrestrial and satellite--will join the fray. Given some of the inherent advantages of wireless over wireline in rolling out dispersed new communications services, wireless competition will likely be formidable. With xDSL and cable modems still providing service to less than 1% of homes, the window is hardly closed to the wireless alternative.

Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI) is launching a study on access alternatives that is sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), which is comprised of major LECs. The study will evaluate the prospects for various wireline and wireless technologies to compete with copper loop technology for voice and non-voice applications. The new study will complement previous TFI studies on the impact of cellular/PCS on LEC voice revenues; the demand for mass-market, high-speed data services; and the modernization of the landline network.

There are several wireless technologies to watch:

In the background is smart antenna and microcell technology, which can increase the effective bandwidth of a given wireless system, as well as ameliorate some of the line-of-sight problems at the higher rates.

It remains to be seen whether these wireless technologies will be niche players in mass-market, high-speed access or one of the big contenders. With fiber-in-the-loop apparently on the sidelines for now, all of the major contenders--xDSL, cable modems, and wireless--must work in noisy, electromagnetic environments with limited bandwidth. This tends to level wireless's disadvantages with respect to its competitors. Given that 15 years is likely to go by before fiber-in-the-loop is universally available, the window of opportunity appears to be wide open for high-speed wireless technologies.

If you believe that TFI could be of assistance to your organization in identifying and evaluating new product opportunities and in developing strategies for bringing these products to the marketplace, please contact John Vanston, Larry Vanston, David Smith, or any other member of the TFI consulting staff. (800) 835-3887

Copyright © 1999, 2000, Technology Futures, Inc.
All rights reserved. Published January 1999. No part of this white paper may be reproduced in any form or by any means, other than short quotes to be used in reviews, without express permission from the publisher.