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Wireless and Cable Voice Services: Forecasts and Competitive Impacts Lawrence K. Vanston & Curt Rogers Description Key findings Table of contents Exhibits Pricing/Ordering information

Description  [back to top]

This timely report from Technology Futures, Inc., an internationally-recognized leader in telecom forecasting, addresses the questions of the magnitude and timing of the impact of wireless and cable competition on the LECs' wireline voice services. The authors, Vanston and Rogers, analyze and forecast the:

• Impacts of wireless voice services.
• Impacts of cable voice services.
• Impacts of wireless and cable voice services combined.
• Likely strategies that the LECs may employ for surviving and thriving in the face of this new competition.

"What is different about wireless and CATV voice services is that they have the potential to reach true mass-market status not only very quickly but at favorable costs" states Dr. Vanston. "Further, wireless has the extra dimension of mobility that wireline service inherently cannot provide, and wireless services do not require regulatory, legislative, or legal approval to compete."

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report  [back to top]

• LECs could lose 13% to 32% market share to wireless voice services alone by 2000. The initial impacts on LEC revenues will be through usage-sensitive charges, since many customers may keep their LEC service as a backup. Eventually, as wireless service improves, customers will choose one over the other.
• Cable could take 16% to 45% of the remaining wireline voice market by 2000, although the lower end is more likely. The higher end would require very aggressive actions by cable companies in partnership with established telecom players.
• Existing LECs could lose a total of 27% to 63% market share of wireline voice services to wireless and cable voice services combined.
• There will be 57 million to 86 million total PCS/cellular subscribers by 2000, depending on prices. Don't miss the opportunity to get this latest edition of the forecasts used by industry insiders when they want an informed, independent assessment of future technology and market changes.

Table of Contents  [back to top]

Chapter One

Introduction and Summary

Chapter Two

Price and Demand Forecasts

• Wireless Services
  • Historical Cellular/PCN Prices
  • Cellular/PCN Subscriber Demand
  • Price-Demand Relation
  • Forecasts for PCS Microcell
• Cable/Voice Services
  • Forecasting the Potential Size of the Cable/Voice Market
  • Umbrella Pricing Strategy
  • Aggressive Pricing Strategy
  • Very Aggressive Pricing Strateg

Chapter Three

Competitive Impacts on the Wireline Network

• Impact of the LEC Transition to Fiber Optics on the Analysis
  • Developing an "Average" Scenario for Fiber Deployment
• Single-Competitor Impacts on the Wireline
  • Wireless Services
  • Cellular/PCN Prices and Subscribers
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Minutes-of-Use
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Access Lines
  • A Secondary Impact on Wireline Minutes-of-Use
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Revenue
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Cash Flows
  • Cellular/PCN and Equipment Retirement Impact on Wireline Depreciation Lives
  • Summary
• Cable/Voice Services
  • A Few Words on Modeling Perspective
  • A Review of the Three Cable/Voice Competitive Scenarios
  • Umbrella Pricing Strategy
  • Aggressive Pricing Strategy
  • Very Aggressive Pricing Strategy
  • Cable/Voice Impact on Wireline Minutes-of-Use
  • Cable/Voice Impact on Wireline Access Lines
  • Cable/Voice Impact on Wireline Revenue
  • Cable/Voice Impact on Wireline Cash Flows
  • Cable/Voice and Equipment Retirement Impact on Wireline Depreciation Lives
  • Summary
• Joint-Competitor Impacts on the Wireline
  • Joint-Analysis Market Share Projections
  • Joint-Analysis Average Remaining Lives (ARLs)

Appendix A

Competitive Impacts Under a "Low-Growth" Wireless Demand Scenario

• Single-Competitor Impacts on the Wireline
  • Cellular/PCN Prices and Subscribers
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Minutes-of-Use
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Access Lines
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Revenue
  • Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Cash Flows
  • Cellular/PCN and Equipment Retirement Impact on Wireline Depreciation Lives
  • Summary
• Joint-Competitor Impacts on the Wireline
  • Joint-Analysis Market Share Projections
  • Joint-Analysis ARLs

List of Exhibits  [back to top]

1.1	Competitive Impacts Using Baseline Growth Scenario for Cellular/PCN
1.2	Competitive Impacts Using Low-Growth Scenario for Cellular/PCN
2.1	Historical Monthly Prices for Cellular/PCN Telephone Service (Including Fixed-Instrument and 250 Minutes Peak-Usage Charges)
2.2	Historical and Projected Levels for Wireline Access Lines and Cellular/PCN Subscribers
2.3	Historical and Projected Levels for Wireline Access Lines and Cellular/PCN Subscribers
2.4	Historical and Projected Price-Demand Relation for Cellular/PCN (United States) [table]
2.5	Historical and Projected Price-Demand Relation for Cellular/PCN [graph]
2.6	Historical and Projected Price-Time Relation for Cellular/PCN
2.7	Forecast of the Percentage of Wireline Subscribers with Cable/Voice Option
2.8	Defining the Market in the Context of Cable/Voice Analysis
2.9	AT&T Long-Distance Market Share and Price Discount of Combined Competitors (MCI and Sprint)
2.10	Projected Cable/Voice Market Share Assumptions
3.1	The Deployment of Distribution Fiber to Meet New Services Demand
3.2	The Deployment of Distribution Fiber to Meet New Services Demand-Average Scenario
3.3	The Deployment of Distribution Fiber and the Obsolescence of Copper Distribution Facilities
3.4	Cellular/PCN Price and Subscriber Forecast
3.5	Cellular/PCN Percentage Impact on Wireline Revenue
3.6	Relationship Between Cellular/PCN Penetration and Wireline Minutes-of-Use by Cellular/PCN Customers
3.7	Relationship Between Cellular/PCN Price-Per-Minute and Lost Wireline Minutes-of-Use by Cellular/PCN Customers
3.8	Relationship Between Lost Minutes-of-Use and Lost Access Lines
3.9	TModel for Determining Message Revenue Impact of Lost Wireline Minutes-of-Use
3.10	Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Cash Flows
3.11	Depreciation Model for the Impact of Cellular/PCN Competition on Wireline
3.12	Cable/Voice Subscriber Forecast-All Scenarios
3.13	Cable/Voice Percentage Impact on Wireline Revenue (Umbrella)
3.14	Cable/Voice Percentage Impact on Wireline Revenue (Aggressive)
3.15	Cable/Voice Percentage Impact on Wireline Revenue (Very Aggressive)
3.16	Cable/Voice Impact on Wireline Cash Flows (Umbrella)
3.17	Cable/Voice Impact on Wireline Cash Flows (Aggressive)
3.18	Cable/Voice Impact on Wireline Cash Flows (Very Aggressive)
3.19	Depreciation Model for the Impact of Cable/Voice on Wireline Economic Value (Umbrella)
3.20	Depreciation Model for the Impact of Cable/Voice on Wireline Economic Value (Aggressive)
3.21	Depreciation Model for the Impact of Cable/Voice on Wireline Economic Value (Very Aggressive)
3.22	Joint-Analysis Total Voice Market Share Projections
3.23	Joint-Analysis Average Remaining Lives (ARLs)
A.1	Cellular/PCN Price and Subscriber Forecast (Low Growth)
A.2	Cellular/PCN Percentage Impact on Wireline Revenue (Low Growth)
A.3	Cellular/PCN Impact on Wireline Cash Flows (Low Growth)
A.4	Depreciation Model for the Impact of Cellular/PCN Competition on Wireline (Low Growth)
A.5	Joint-Analysis Total Voice Market Share Projections (Low Growth)
A.6	Joint-Analysis ARLs (Low Growth)

Pricing Information  [back to top]

1995, 67 pages, PaperboundSponsored by the TTFG, ISBN 1-884154-04-2

US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery

US $45 Hard Copy Mail Delivery Outside US, Canada

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