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Technology Forecasting
- Forecasts for Advanced Video Services
Vanston, Lawrence K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- The author previews a newly defined industry -- advanced video services (AVS). He provides forecasts with analysis for the adoption and availability of AVS and HDTV. These forecasts are intended to help decision makers who are concerned with timing the development of the advanced video services market and the supporting infrastructure . Included is a table classifying video services by customer interface.
- Forecasts of High-Speed Home Digital Services
Vanston, Lawrence K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- Summarizes recent Technology Futures, Inc. forecasts of the percentage of households using digital services by data rate. Also provides some scenarios describing how one group of potential providers -- local exchange carriers -- will have to upgrade their networks to be competitive in the market for digital access services.
- Impacts of the 1996 Telecom Act on Investment and Innovation
Darby, Larry F. , Ph.D.
Fuhr, Joseph P. , Jr., Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- Focuses on conditions conducive to investment and innovation in the telecom network sector of the economy. The authors address issues and questions related to the impact of the Telecommunications Act of 1997, and the FCC's implementation of the act on capital markets and the incentives for carriers to undertake risky investment. Includes a review of recent market performance of stocks and some recent research in progress on the sensitivity of telecom securities prices to interest rates and other factors.
- Planning Tools for Informed Decisions: Technical Trend Analysis
Vanston, John H. , Ph.D.
Vanston, Lawrence K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- The authors begin a series of articles on the role of technology forecasting (TF) in effective decision making. Each article will examine different TF techniques, methods for employing the results of forecasts, and suggestions for integrating TF activities into corporate activities.
- Sharpening the Videoconference Target
Grant, August E. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- The author takes the position that videoconferencing has not yet reached the "critical mass" necessary for dramatic growth across markets. He begins the article with a brief look at an incredibly practical theory relating to the adoption of interactive technologies, using fax technology to illustrate the theory. The theory is then used to illustrate one of the biggest hurdles that videoconference technology must vault before becoming as ubiquitous as comparable technologies.
- Technology Forecasting: A Practical Tool for Rationalizing the R&D Process
Vanston, John H. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- The author explains how technology forecasting techniques can be used not only to project advances in technology, but also to identify and evaluate markets for new technologies, define potential competitor strategies and actions, and examine how the new technologies will impact the business operating environment.
- The Demise of Analog Cellular
Hodges, Ray L.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- The author analyzes and forecasts the inevitable replacement of analog cellular with digital technologies. Included in this article are Technology Futures' latest forecasts for the growth of wireless and PCS subscribers and the rate of displacement of analog with digital.
- The Emerging Business Economics of Telecommunications
Shaw, James K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- Provides a definition of convergence and discusses its significance in the restructuring of the telecommunications industry. Prompted by deregulation and technological advance, the author contends that no firm can fully participate in all sectors of the industry without acquiring, merging, or cooperating with complementary firms.
- The Future of Computing : Technology Trends and Forecasts
Poitras, Adrian J.
Hodges, Ray L.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- Reviews the implications of technology change on computers, including the competition among the various computer platform types. Following the review of the technology, forecasts and analyses pertaining to the economic valuation of computer technology are developed. These are designed to support financial depreciation decisions on computer lives.
- Three Scenarios for the Adoption of FITL and xDSL
Vanston, Lawrence K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- Presents three scenarios of how local exchange carriers may evolve their landline networks to provide high-speed digital services to residences requiring access to multimedia on-line/Internet applications. All three scenarios envision the ultimate adoption of fiber; the difference is in the timing.
- Vision Planning
Holliday, Clifford R.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- Addresses a set of techniques directed at formalizing the process of vision development and follow-through. The author outlines the process of developing, refining, and testing a vision statement. He explains why comparing the draft vision against technology projections and plans is so important. Finally, he discusses the real "payoff" stage of Vision Planning -- backward deployment or high-level implementation planning.
- Wireless Communications and Technology Substitution: What S-Curves Reveal about Pending Cellular Competition
Shaw, James K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]
- The author reviews the principal wireless technologies -- cellular, paging, PCS, and SMR -- and their emerging competitive positioning. He estimates market penetration rates, a probable time of maturity for the industry, and likely points at which some technologies will be sought as substitutes for others. Included in the article is a table citing competitive advantages and disadvantages of each of these technologies, plus charts of his estimates for 1996 through 2004.
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