[author]
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[title] '; include("head.php"); ?> Shaw, James K. , Ph.D.

Future Scenarios for the Telecom Industry: A Ten-Year Forecast
Shaw, James K. , Ph.D.
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Outlines five scenarios for the telecommunications industry through the year 2007. The models discussed are service explosion, corporate consolidation, customer-led customization, price implosion, and short-run chaos/long-run stability. The models include a discussion of underlying assumptions and can be used as strategic planning tools for measuring the advance of competition and its impact on the telecommunications industry.

The Emerging Business Economics of Telecommunications
Shaw, James K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]

Provides a definition of convergence and discusses its significance in the restructuring of the telecommunications industry. Prompted by deregulation and technological advance, the author contends that no firm can fully participate in all sectors of the industry without acquiring, merging, or cooperating with complementary firms.

Wireless Communications and Technology Substitution: What S-Curves Reveal about Pending Cellular Competition
Shaw, James K. , Ph.D.
[HTML version] [pdf version]

The author reviews the principal wireless technologies -- cellular, paging, PCS, and SMR -- and their emerging competitive positioning. He estimates market penetration rates, a probable time of maturity for the industry, and likely points at which some technologies will be sought as substitutes for others. Included in the article is a table citing competitive advantages and disadvantages of each of these technologies, plus charts of his estimates for 1996 through 2004.

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