New Market Research Report

AUSTIN, Texas, September 1, 1998--Technology Futures, Inc., an internationally-recognized leader in telecom forecasting, announces the publication of a new report, Wireless vs. Wireline for Voice Services: Forecasts and Impacts. The report was co-authored by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President) and Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant) of Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). This research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies which includes Bell Atlantic, Bell Canada, Bellcore, BellSouth Telecommunications, Cincinnati Bell, GTE Telephone Operations, Southwestern Bell Telephone, Sprint-LTD, and U S WEST Communications.

The report discusses how wireless services such as cellular and PCS are replacing traditional wireline voice telephone service. According to the report, 25% of LEC voice access lines could be lost by 2005, with some of the losses being balanced by gains in data access lines. Also, the report forecasts that 50% of LEC usage-sensitive revenues may be lost by 2005, and that these revenues are less likely to be made up for by data services.

"Even if no one ever pulled the plug on their wireline telephone service, the impact on wireline revenues could be huge," said report co-author LawrenceVanston. "That's because about half of a typical LEC's revenue comes from usage-sensitive charges such as long distance access charges and intraLATA long distance." Vanston continued, "Long distance carriers, especially those with wireless operations, have plenty of reason to encourage wireless to bypass local access charges on which they spend about half their revenues."

The report states, "LECs need to aggressively pursue those opportunities that take best advantage of the strengths of their landline networks: Providing high-speed digital access, including Internet access, to the mass market." According to Vanston, "Data only partly solves the problem for LECs because that market will be competitive, with limited willingness-to-pay, and will require significant added investment.

According to Ray Hodges, report co-author, "Wireless is now cost competitive with wireline, has the required capacity, and is approaching landline quality for voice." He also noted that wireless technology is an effective weapon for new local competitors that need to serve dispersed customers on demand. "The impacts are significant whether usage is lost by attrition to cellular/PCS mobile users or new competitors deliberately capture customers using wireless local loop technology," stated Mr. Hodges.

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Dr. Vanston is a recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecommunications industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively by telecom managers, professionals, and the media.

Mr. Hodges brings 30 years of telecom expertise and experience, including 25 years with GTE Telephone Operations, to his work at TFI. His interests are focused on emerging wireless technologies and markets and their impacts on the public telecom network.

Technology Futures helps organizations plan for the future. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we customize our approach to the technology, financial, and marketing issues facing our clients. Our services include consulting, research, and education.

General business and industry publications regularly cite our staff members' views and the results of our research. We are always happy to be interviewed and quoted for articles on subjects within our areas of expertise

PRESS CONTACT-Please contact Carrie Vanston by telephone at (323) 436-0314 or by e-mail at cvanston@tfi.com with any questions and/or to arrange an interview with Larry Vanston, Ray Hodges, or other technology and telecom experts at TFI. If you need immediate assistance and Ms. Vanston is unavailable, please contact the corporate office in Austin at (512) 258-8898 or (800) 835-3887.

PURCHASING CONTACT FOR YOUR READERS-Readers interested in purchasing the report should contact Debra Robison, Technology Futures, Inc., by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or send e-mail to pubsales@tfi.com. The 50-page report is priced at $495 in North America and $510 elsewhere. Thank you for your attention.

Technology Futures, Inc.
13740 Research Boulevard, Building C
Austin, TX 78750
(800) TEK-FUTR (U.S. and Canada)
(512) 258-8898, Fax: (512) 258-0087
e-mail: cvanston@tfi.com