New Market Research Report

AUSTIN, Texas, June 1, 1999--Technology Futures, Inc., an internationally recognized leader in telecom forecasting, announces the publication of the report, Telecommunications Access Technologies: Overview and Competitive Assessment, authored by Ray L. Hodges, a senior consultant at Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI). The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Atlantic, Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Cincinnati Bell, GTE Telephone Operations, Southwestern Bell Telephone, Sprint-LTD, and U S WEST Communications.

The report provides a concise overview of the competitive access technologies that will impact the local exchange network. It concludes that these emerging technologies have the capability to completely bypass the "last mile" of the incumbent local exchange carrier (ILEC) network. According to Hodges, "The report provides all the arguments the ILECs need to prove that their markets are already competitive and will become much more so. The network was designed for a 100% market share, and, even at 100%, it's expensive. In a competitive environment, it's not efficient at all. The competing technologies-terrestrial wireless, satellite, or cable-are simply more economical than the ILECs' circuit switched, copper-based network for multimedia services and will become more economical for voice as the ILEC market share declines."

Hodges continues, "Cable telephony and wireless technologies are capable of providing direct and significant competition for voice services in the near future. Cable modems, broadband wireless, and even second-generation satellites will all be viable competitors for the high-speed data market in the 2001 to 2002 timeframe. A combination of these technologies in the hands of very powerful established service providers and nimble newcomers will completely eliminate the remnants of the ILECs' former monopoly on local access."

The report also finds that it is now economically practical for multiple competitors to provide fiber facilities in core business districts. Additionally, continued improvements in fiber optic technology and newly-available millimeter wave radio systems (i.e., wireless fiber) extend the reach of competitive providers even further to include smaller cities and businesses. The ILECs' natural response to their competition is to expand beyond their franchise boundaries as full-service competitive local exchange carriers or by acquisitions. This, in turn, results in more competition for the other ILECs.

• Cable modems will continue to dominate the high-speed data market with 58% of market share in 2005.
• ILECs will lose significant market share, which will dramatically increase the cost of serving remaining customers.
• Both wireless and cable voice are significantly less costly than ILEC access at reduced penetration rates.

• Analyzes the competitive threat to local exchange carriers from competing technologies that will provide either voice or data services.
• For ease-of-use and comparison, outlines the state of each technology, the key application areas and special strengths, weaknesses and limitations, key providers and users, market size, and forecasts of the technology adoption.
• Provides an assessment and opinion as to the direction of the industry.
• Includes analysis and forecasts of analog, cellular, digital cellular/PCS, 2.5 and 3rd generation wireless, cable modems, cable voice, fiber-based CLECs, MMDS and LMDS, VSATs, and two generations of LEOs (narrowband and broadband).

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Mr. Hodges brings 30 years of telecom expertise and experience to his work at TFI, including 25 years with GTE Telephone Operations. His interests are focused on emerging wireless technologies and markets and their impacts on the public telecom network.

Technology Futures helps organizations plan for the future. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we customize our approach to the technology, financial, and marketing issues facing our clients. Our services include consulting, research, and education.

General business and industry publications regularly cite our staff members' views and the results of our research. We are always happy to be interviewed and quoted for articles on subjects within our areas of expertise.

PRESS CONTACT-Please contact Carrie Vanston by telephone at (323) 436-0314 or by e-mail at cvanston@tfi.com with any questions and/or to arrange an interview with Ray Hodges, or other technology and telecom experts at TFI. If you need immediate assistance and Ms. Vanston is unavailable, please contact the corporate office in Austin at (512) 258-8898 or (800) 835-3887.

PURCHASING CONTACT FOR YOUR READERS-Readers interested in purchasing the report should contact Debra Robison, Technology Futures, Inc., by telephone at (512) 258-8898 or (800) TEK-FUTR, by fax at (512) 258-0087, or send e-mail to pubsales@tfi.com. The 113-page report is priced at $495 in North America and $510 elsewhere. Thank you for your attention.

Technology Futures, Inc.
13740 Research Boulevard, Building C
Austin, TX 78750
(800) TEK-FUTR (U.S. and Canada)
(512) 258-8898, Fax: (512) 258-0087
e-mail: cvanston@tfi.com